Posted on Friday 30 June 2006

Bush’s Approval Ratings are instructive as the midterm elections approach this coming November.

The most obvious thing is the baseline decline in his popularity that is in the background. Equally striking are the spikes in response to events. The first huge spike is the response to the September 2001 Trade Tower bombing. The next one is at the outbreak of the Iraq War. The next is from Saddam Hussein’s capture. Finally, there’s a plateau around the time of the November 2003 elections. These polling numbers say to me that there is a strategy that basically says ignore the American people and count on favorable events to pull you up when you need pulling up. But it looks like it’s short lived, and the spikes get lower and lower. But the one that matters is the plateau around election time. That represents, I think, a Herculean effort on the part of Lucky Karl with a blitz of Rovisms.

We’re in one of those times right now. Rove is beginning to pour on the heat – the attacks on the NY Times, the Al Zarqawi assasination, the campaign travelling, the anti-blog media blitz, Gay Marriage, Immigration, etc. Will it work? Can they bring it off yet again? Well, events aren’t going their way. The War isn’t going their way. But that’s no indicator because the dirty trick season [like Swiftboating] hasn’t started yet.

While it’s dangerous to ever count Lucky Karl out, I just don’t think they can do it. Their "base" is certainly fired up and noisy. And Rush and Ann are wailing like banshees. They might get some kind of half-assed settlement in Iraq at least started. And there will be dirty tricks and election misdeeds as before. But I think they’re done. I don’t think there are enough misguided Christians and right wing hawks to carry them any more. Too much of their underbelly shows.

I hope I’m not wrong about this, but it’s the first time I’ve felt it in memorable history. But I sure don’t expect a liberal government to follow. I am, however, optimistic that our flirtation with Fascism is about to turn around. 

High time… 

"You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time." Abraham Lincoln

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