so much for my predictions…

Posted on Sunday 29 October 2006

Sixty House Races Within Single Digits

This might be the most fluid election situation we have seen in America in decades. As many as sixty House races will be decided by a very slim margin. In other words, these races could all very well come down to things like GOTV operations, election infrastructure, or even what the weather is like on Election Day.

In 1994, Republicans won a majority on the back of twenty-five narrow victories decided by less than 10,000 votes. With 60 House seats in play, the size of any new majority we have will be determined by just as many narrow victories. At the same time, if Republicans hang on to a narrow majority, it will be because of a huge string of narrow victories. This election is absolutely in flux, and can shift dramatically on the basis of only a few points either way.

A few days ago, I was predicting that it was over. The die was cast. Well, Chris Bowers of MyDD says no. It’s a cliff hanger. I recommend we go with Chris Bowers – he’s the numbers man. I hate that. I wanted to feel mildly peaceful next week, but I guess it’s more money and a few more letters to the editor and anxious reading of the polls. Living in Georgia takes some of the fun out of things. There aren’t any bloggers talking about the close races in Georgia, cause there’s only one, and it’s a State office.

Good friend Jim Martin is a real contender for Lt. Governor. He’s running against Casey Cagle, the guy that beat Ralph Reed in the primary. The only thing Jim has against him is that he’s not a Republican here in Republican Georgia. He’s a lifelong public servant with the right resume and the right character. If you’re a Georgian, go vote for him straight away, and if you have some extra cash, send it his way. He’s worth it…

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