the “Great Divergence”…

Posted on Friday 17 September 2010

I’ve been following the series in Slate called The United States of Inequality. There are 10 installments and I’ve already tried to pull out representative quotes from the first 6. The whole series is based on this graph showing the growing wealth inequity in the US in the last thirty years:

Here are my previous comments [in red] and the original installments [in dark]:

Rather than give quotes for the next three installments, I’ll just briefly summarize his conclusions [they’re more complex than the earlier ones]:
    In this installment, he looks at the galance of trade and the ‘outsourcing’ of manufacturing to other countries, particularly China. He quotes economists who have studied this and concludes that it’s not so big a factor as most of us think, but it is in the mix.
    .Noah points to the work of Emmanual Saez at Berkley who has shown that the bulk of the concentration of wealth has been among the Super-Rich [top 0.1%] – the Corporate CEO’s and top Financial poeople – the Corporatocracy...
     
    "The abrupt halt and subsequent slowdown of gains in educational attainment began at about the same time as the Great Divergence. Before the Great Divergence, the country enjoyed at least three decades of growing income equality, an epoch that Goldin and Boston University economist Robert Margo have termed "The Great Compression." Between 1900 and the mid-1970s, U.S. incomes became dramatically more equal while educational attainment climbed. But starting in the mid-1970s and continuing to today, incomes became dramatically less equal while educational attainment stagnated. Katz and Goldin believe this is not a coincidence." He sees failings in the educational system as a much bigger contributor than I would have thought.
In this 9th installment, author Timothy Noah takes a stab at the relative weighting of the factors in causing "The Great Divergence":
We have now reviewed all possible causes of the Great Divergence—all, at least, that have thus far attracted most experts’ attention. What are their relative contributions? Here is a back-of-the-envelope calculation, an admittedly crude composite of my discussions with and reading of the various economists and political scientists cited thus far:
  1. Race and gender are responsible for none of it, and single parenthood is responsible for virtually none of it.
  2. Immigration is responsible for 5 percent.
  3. The imagined uniqueness of computers as a transformative technology is responsible for none of it.
  4. Tax policy is responsible for 5 percent.
  5. The decline of labor is responsible for 20 percent.
  6. Trade is responsible for 10 percent.
  7. Wall Street and corporate boards’ pampering of the Stinking Rich is responsible for 30 percent.
  8. Various failures in our education system are responsible for 30 percent.
Most of these factors reflect at least in part things the federal government did or failed to do. Immigration is regulated, at least in theory, by the federal government. Tax policy is determined by the federal government. The decline of labor is in large part the doing of the federal government. Trade levels are regulated by the federal government. Government rules concerning finance and executive compensation help determine the quantity of cash that the Stinking Rich take home. Education is affected by government at the local, state, and (increasingly) federal levels. In a broad sense, then, we all created the Great Divergence, because in a democracy, the government is us.
At first, this list seemed arrogant to me since it’s so subjective. But in rereading his installments, I changed my mind, deciding it was a useful benchmark for partitioning the factors, albeit just an estimate from his interviews with a sea of economists.And his speculations fit the data. There’s a tenth installment [10. Why We Can’t Ignore Growing Income Inequality] where Noah takes on the Conservative arguments that we shouldn’t worry about income equity. But that’s enough for now. Taking on Conservatives deserved a post of its own…

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