hope…

Posted on Thursday 23 September 2010

In my last post about Nathan Deal, I worried about "piling on" [this Deal is a bad investment…]. Now, on top of the $2M he lost in his son-in-law’s bankruptcy, and the $2.8M he owes come due in February, there’s another $2.5M loan for his auto salvage business [New explanation given for loans Deal obtained in 2009]? I think that’s what I’m reading. Then there’s yet another amendment to his financial disclosure that somehow ups his worth [Deal again amends financial disclosure report] since last week’s amendment. Again, it’s hard to follow what they’re talking about. And new properties keep appearing. I found one on the Chatahoochie last night, and this report mentions one in Metter [the other side of Georgia]. It’s all very hard to get straight, and one has the feeling that it’s still not all on the table. I’m thinking that talking about Nathan Deal’s finances is anything but piling on.

And yet Deal seems to be still ahead in the polls [Poll: Nathan Deal maintains lead despite financial revelations]. Granted, it’s a Rasmussen Poll which are notoriously Republican friendly. But he is, indeed, ahead. The campaign ads are everywhere – seeming a little vicious to me. Barnes is hammering Deal’s finances and his resigning his seat in the House in the middle of the night to avoid an ethics investigation. Deal is calling Barnes "King Roy" from his earlier term, attacking him on his record, and has coined a new word "Roybama" to link him to the President [try it – http://www.roybama.com].

Roy Barnes Nathan Deal

Why is Nathan Deal still ahead in the polls? You’d have to live here to know the answer [I live here and I don’t know either exactly, but I’m not surprised]. I’m beginning to think that the Recession caught Nathan Deal with his pants down, just like it caught Bernie Madoff. As long as the economy was on the rise [property values, Stock Market, easy loans, etc], he was borrowing to cover borrowing [remember the halcyon mid-2000’s?]. My guess is that when things turned down, he had a lot of leveraged property [many did] and a son-in-law with an overbuilt Sporting Goods store in the middle of nowhere when the high end shotgun business and the market for guided fishing trips plummeted. In my scenario, Nathan Deal had all four sails up and when the wind died, he’d forgotten to get any gas for the motor. If I’m right about that, there’s no exit from his troubles. In 2010, "leveraging" just isn’t an option. Last night when I was looking at his properties, I didn’t see anything that he might get the appraisal value for in this day and time. Gloomy story, and we have likely not heard all of it yet. Georgians are going to have to close their eyes real tight and cover their ears to elect Nathan Deal. But unqualified and untalented just aren’t going to be enough. Maybe beyond broke isn’t quite enough either – yet.

Nate Silver’s NYT/538 site has the Georgia Gubernatorial race classified as a toss-up. That’s not bad. And there’s a Libertarian that could keep a close race from the 50% mark and trigger a run-off. I’m worried that Roy Barnes is focusing a little too much on Deal’s woes. He doesn’t need to do that right now. It’s all over the papers and the poll says many are watching. He can’t run as "not Deal." That niche is already taken by Deal’s "not-Barnes" campaign. But Barnes is a smart guy. I expect he’ll figure it out. Getting himself elected Governor in Georgia as a Democrat would be one remarkable accomplishment. I’m almost afraid to hope…
  1.  
    Carl
    September 24, 2010 | 9:12 PM
     

    Well, he (Mr. Barnes) did it once and he was my governor at the time and I was down with that – I hope he can do it again. One imagines that he will breeze through Atlanta – one hopes indeed.

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