The War in Afghanistan: A just War. Our Cassus Belli was a regime that had given haven to and supported Osama bin Laden who bombed New York. Their government is now reasonably stable. In spite of continued resistance, our NATO allies continue to support this war.
The War in Iraq: An unjust War. Our Cassus Belli was fallacious intelligence created by our own government and the fantasies of our leaders. It has been a failure, in that the country of Iraq as a whole is not "behind" the effort. While there are outside forces opposing us, there are equally powerful internal forces fighting us and each other. The outcome is likely to be a Shiite theocracy elected by the people.
The War on Terror: While our Cassus Belli was just, a response to repeated Terrorist Attacks on our country, we initially understood this as a War on Terrorists. That has not been the case. It seems to have been a smokescreen to effect an American Foreign Policy change, known as the Bush Doctrine, in which the United States trumped the United Nations as the world police force. It is also likely that a major motivating force was the world energy economy and the Iraq Oil Reserves.
Can an unjust war be "won?": Military victory can be effected with a superior military force. Military Rule can be maintained with an even larger force, usually using suppressive techniques. We roughly know from experience the size of military presence needed in Iraq – 350,000 soldiers, the size of Saddam Hussein’s Army. He did it. An example of such a successful Military Regime is Burma, a small country with the world’s largest standing Army.
What are we doing now in Iraq? It seems like we’re trying to split the difference between Military Rule and withdrawal. There is, unfortunately, no such middle ground. What could we do at this point that makes sense? Send Diplomats to each faction and negotiate our withdrawal, recognizing that we owe them for invading their country in the first place, and that they owe us for getting rid of the last Military Rule – Saddam Hussein. If "Regime Change" was good for them, then we can bargain our way out. If "Regime Change" was bad for them, then we have no bargaining chips and need to come home. It’s not really our place to say what’s ultimately good for Iraq. It is our place to make sure our interests for our national security are optimized. Iraq is not our insoluable problem. Our own government is our problem, soluable [if we have any sense] in November of this year. Sometimes "Regime Change" is a solution…
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