1 Boring Old Man

In maybe 1966-67, I was in a political discussion and a wise older [sort of famous] doctor said something like, "We have to alternate. The Democrats come in and help people, then it’s the Republican’s turn, and they turn things down a bit. Then we do it again. It’s like a scale – back and forth." That seemed simplistic to me, but it made sense. When Nixon got elected in 1968, I though, "It’s their turn." When Reagan got elected, I was sort of feeling like it was too soon. It wasn’t their turn yet. All during his time and when Bush followed, I felt that there was something about that scale that wasn’t working right – particularly with the economy. But I was glad to see Clinton arrive. It even looked as if he was going to survive the assault, until Monica came along. In 1994, when the Republicans took both Houses of Congress, "I thought it’s their turn." That was the first worst thought I ever had. Then when George W. Bush got elected, I thought it again. That was the second worst thought I ever had.

The Republicans may bugger-up Congress in November, but it’s not their turn. In fact, they’re living on borrowed [stolen] time. All this obstructionism and propaganda may work yet again, but it still not their time. Right now, the scale is trying to go left, and it needs to go left pretty soon. They’re putting up one hell of a fight – engaging every subgroup and dirty trick they can find, threatening to destroy the country rather than to take turns. Listen to Conservative columnist David Brooks:

The Day After Tomorrow
^{Every political movement has a story. The surging Republican Party has a story, too. It is a story of virtue betrayed and innocence threatened.}
New York Times
by David Brooks
September 15, 2010

The fact is, the American story is not just the story of limited governments; it is the story of limited but energetic governments that used aggressive federal power to promote growth and social mobility. George Washington used industrial policy, trade policy and federal research dollars to build a manufacturing economy alongside the agricultural one. The Whig Party used federal dollars to promote a development project called the American System…

If the current Republican Party regards every new bit of government action as a step on the road to serfdom, then the party will be taking this long, mainstream American tradition and exiling it from the G.O.P.

That will be a political tragedy. There are millions of voters who, while alarmed by the Democrats’ lavish spending, still look to government to play some positive role. They fled the G.O.P. after the government shutdown of 1995, and they would do so again.

It would be a fiscal tragedy. Over the next decade there will have to be spending cuts and tax increases. If Republicans decide that even the smallest tax increases put us on the road to serfdom, then there will never be a deal, and the country will careen toward bankruptcy.

It would also be a policy tragedy. Republicans are right to oppose the current concentration of power in Washington. But once that is halted, America faces a series of problems that can’t be addressed simply by getting government out of the way.

The social fabric is fraying. Human capital is being squandered. Society is segmenting. The labor markets are ill. Wages are lagging. Inequality is increasing. The nation is overconsuming and underinnovating. China and India are surging. Not all of these challenges can be addressed by the spontaneous healing powers of the market. Most important, it would be an intellectual tragedy. Conservatism is supposed to be nonideological and context-driven. If all government action is automatically dismissed as quasi socialist, then there is no need to think. A pall of dogmatism will settle over the right.

Republicans are riding a wave of revulsion about what is happening in Washington. But it is also time to start talking about the day after tomorrow, after the centralizing forces are thwarted. I hope that as Arthur Brooks and Paul Ryan lead a resurgent conservatism, they’ll think about the limited-but-energetic government tradition, which stands between Barry Goldwater and François Mitterrand, but at the heart of the American experience.