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Posted on Monday 3 September 2007

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Op-Ed Contributor

A War We Just Might Win

By MICHAEL E. O’HANLON and KENNETH M. POLLACK
Published: July 30, 2007

This was the widely criticized op-ed in the New York Times written by a pair from the Brookings Institute who were accused of being sold a bill of goods on their military chaperoned eight day trip to Iraq a month ago. O’HANLON’s back with the chart in my last post.

Op-Ed Contributor

The State of Iraq: An Update

By JASON CAMPBELL, MICHAEL O’HANLAN and AMY UNIKEWICZ
Published: September 4, 2007

In advance of the much-anticipated Congressional testimony next week of Ryan Crocker, the ambassador to Iraq, and Gen. David Petraeus, the top United States military commander, many have agreed on what appear to be two crucial realities in Iraq: there is military momentum for combined American-Iraqi forces and there is political paralysis in Baghdad. While the recent Government Accountability Office report on the 18 benchmarks set out by Congress in May gave a very pessimistic view, our data above, culled from official Iraqi and American sources and press reports, support a more mixed picture.

Unfortunately, at the moment the political paralysis seems to be a more powerful force than the military momentum, and progress in security is unsustainable without sectarian compromise among Iraq’s Kurds, Sunni Arabs and Shiites. The country remains very violent, and the economy rather stagnant.

Nonetheless, the military momentum appears real, despite the tragic multiple truck bombings in Ninevah Province on Aug. 14 that made that month the deadliest since winter. Overall, civilian fatality rates are down perhaps one third since late 2006, though they remain quite high. There are also signs that roughly six of Iraq’s 18 provinces are making significant economic and security gains, up from three a year ago. The story in Sunni-dominated Anbar Province is by now well known: attacks in the city of Ramadi are down 90 percent, and the economy is recovering. But there is progress in several regions with more complex sectarian mixes as well.

Given the continuing violence, and the absence of political progress, Iraq is not now on a trajectory toward sustainable stability — and America is not yet on a clear path to an exit strategy. With sectarian tensions so high, and hatreds so freshly stoked, Iraq’s own dynamics would probably lead to an accelerating civil war if left unchecked.

Jason Campbell is a senior research assistant at the Brookings Institution in Washington. Michael O’Hanlon is a senior fellow at Brookings. Amy Unikewicz is a graphic designer in South Norwalk, Conn.

Looks like Michael O’Hanlan has taken a more somber view, a more realistic view. He says, "Iraq’s own dynamics would probably lead to an accelerating civil war if left unchecked." I can only conclude that that prediction keeps getting made because it’s the safest bet, maybe even true. First, assuming it’s true, there’s the question of what we could do about it. Bush has conned us into his way of thinking in that we’re awaiting the word on whether the Surge is "working" or not. The question before that one, to me, is whether we should interfere in the course of the Iraq history any more than we already have? I obviously lean toward "no," but staying in Bush’s frame of reference, I don’t see in that chart down there that says anything much is happening one way or another – ups and downs just like in 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006. And as for the dire predictions, at the rate things are going, the Iraqi Civil War may well be over before we even officially recognize that they’re having one…

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