How can one evaluate a war if you’re opposed to war in general, and particularly opposed to the war you’re evaluating? I expect the answer is that you can’t. Undaunted, I continue to try to figure it out. I don’t think anyone would say that listening to President Bush or General Petraeus is the best way to think about it [speaking of bias], though General Petraeus is a much more reliable reporter than his boss. There are two reports this week that have much more information to ponder than the distillations of the Commander in Chief Decider and his hand-picked General and Ambassador –
Iraq Index: Tracking Variables of Reconstruction & Security in Post-Saddam Iraq [Brookings Institute] and
Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq [Pentagon]. Both have a lot of well-documented data in them. Although a lot of it comes from estimates, my personal impression is that both reports were prepared with integrity and I think they give us our best shot at understanding this war. I’ve been endlessly boring my friends and readers for days looking at certain parameters from these reports
[1][2][3].
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Thus far, I’ve concluded that the Surge was something Bush
had to do if he wanted us to stay in Iraq. Things were deteriorating, and, as the
Iraq Study Group Report said, it was getting too gloomy there to stay. I questioned, as others have questioned, General Petraeus’ slide showing a decrease in Iraqi Civilian Casualties because of the Surge. That one needs to go back to the drawing board
[1].
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But as I continued to look at the Pentagon Report, it became clear that if the Surge had made any difference, it was that it had slowed the attacks
against us. It wasn’t clear it had helped the Iraqis very much
[2].
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As I looked further, I realized that we’ve Surged before – always in response to increased violence. The effects have been temporary and there’s nothing I can see to suggest that this one will be any different
[3].
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And finally, I noticed some things that I felt like I should have already known – the attacks are
against us, but it’s
the Iraqis who are getting wounded and killed and the violence escalated with the coming of Self-Rule – eg a
Civil War[2][3].
I don’t have much question about why they are attacking us. It’s because we’re there and are foreign invaders. They’re trying to drive us out of the country. The more naive among us might respond, "Just stop fighting us and we’ll come home." But they know what we should know, President Bush has no plan for Johnny to come Marching Home. Whether it’s for oil or national defense, he went to a lot of trouble to plant us in the Middle East and he’s not about to pull us out. I believe that at the level of fact. So do the "insurgents."
So who is attacking us in Iraq? We can’t listen to President Bush, Vice President Cheney, or any of the Neoconservatives. They all say "the evil ones," lumping everyone who opposes us as "Islamofascists" or al Qaeda or "Terrorists." These tables are from the Brookings Report [reformatted "to fit your screen"]:
The people attacking us are primarily Iraqis. People have been saying that, but here it is in black and white. Be sure to read the footnote at the bottom of the second table. The suicide bombers are foreigners – presumably Islamic Fundamentalists headed for heaven by killing Infidels [that’s us]. To me, this data says that there’s a war against us to drive us out of the country. There’s a Civil War too, but, as Juan Cole implies, it might get resolved if we get out of the way. This data does not support the ravings of President Bush and Vice President Cheney that we’re fighting a War on Terror. We’re fighting a War against Iraqis, and not the ones we went to fight.
Never give up. Your are doing an invaluable service to people who feel like you. You are not alone. I hope soldiers in Iraq and everywhere get the message that is loud and clear, Democrats want them out of Iraq and Republicans want them to stay and die. Reed and Levin tried to give the soldiers a chance to come home like Webb and Hagel but they were stopped by the Republicans. I hope the Demo crats in the Senate keep after the Republicans, because we have to stop this insane war and start fighting the real terrorist that want to kill us.