1 Boring Old Man

US Intelligence Says Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Program in 2003

A new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear capabilities and intentions says international pressure and scrutiny caused Iran to stop work on nuclear weapons in late 2003, and the work had not resumed as of mid-2007. But the report adds that Iran appears to be keeping open the option of building a nuclear weapon. It says Iran continues to produce enriched uranium. The estimate says, Iran is not likely to have enough weapons-grade highly enriched uranium for a bomb until late 2009 at the earliest. The key findings of the estimate, which represent the highest collective judgments of the U.S. intelligence community, were released Monday. The new assessment differs sharply in some respects with a 2005 National Intelligence Estimate on Iran. In 2005 the intelligence agencies said Iran was determined to develop nuclear weapons. The new estimate says it now appears Iran is less determined to produce nuclear weapons than previously believed…

[see also A Blow to Bush’s Tehran Policy and Intel Chief Breaks New Non-Disclosure Policy With Dovish Iran Report

We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program; we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons. We judge with high confidence that the halt, and Tehran’s announcement of its decision to suspend its declared uranium enrichment program and sign an Additional Protocol to its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Safeguards Agreement, was directed primarily in response to increasing international scrutiny and pressure resulting from exposure of Iran’s previously undeclared nuclear work.