as predicted…

Posted on Wednesday 30 January 2008


Senior U.S. military commanders here say they want to freeze troop reductions starting this summer for at least a month, making it more likely that the next administration will inherit as many troops in Iraq as there were before President Bush announced a "surge" of forces a year ago. There are about 155,000 U.S. troops in Iraq now, with about 5,000 leaving every month; the proposed freeze would go into effect in July, when troops levels reach around 130,000. Although violence is dropping in Iraq, commanders say they want to halt withdrawals to assess whether they can control the situation with fewer troops.

Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, will probably argue for what the military calls an operational "pause" at his next round of congressional testimony, expected in early April, another senior U.S. military official here said. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates and top military officers have said they would like to see continued withdrawals throughout this year, but Bush has indicated he is likely to be guided by Petraeus’s views. Bush trumpeted the success of his Iraq strategy during his State of the Union address this week. But if he agrees with Petraeus’s expected recommendation, the administration will not be able to reduce troop levels much below what they were in early 2007, when Bush began to deploy additional forces…
Yesterday, it was White House Shows Signs of Rethinking Cut in Troops. Today it’s U.S. Commanders in Iraq Favor Pause in Troop Cuts. Tomorrow, I expect it will be something like Bush defers to Petraeus: Iraq Troop Cuts Suspended. Monday, Bush signed the Defense Bill with a Signing Statement that disavows that he will uphold these Congressional Provisions in the Bill:
  1. One such provision sets up a commission to probe contracting fraud in Iraq and Afghanistan.
  2. Another expands protections for whistleblowers who work for government contractors.
  3. A third requires that U.S. intelligence agencies promptly respond to congressional requests for documents.
  4. And a fourth bars funding for permanent bases in Iraq and for any action that exercises U.S. control over Iraq’s oil money.
Let me produce my monotonous graphs once again:
Notice the blue line [U.S. Troops]. So, on Bush’s leaving office 5 1/2 years after invading Iraq, our troop levels  will be where they were when he started – around 130,000. As a matter of fact, everything about Iraq is about where it was when he started. Even the death rate remains remarkably constant – about three Americans killed per day. Current estimates put the Iraqi death toll at 1 million people.
If there is a legitimate reason for this war or our continued involvement in it, someone please remind me. It eludes me…

For Review: The Report of the Iraq Study Group, December 2006…
see also: Speaking of not getting credit …

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