Here we go again. The map in the upper left is one of the many we’ll see attempting to predict the outcome of the Presidential election in November. It shows the Democratic States in blue, Republican States in red, and potential "Swing" States in purple. Our somewhat anachronoistic Electoral College system that makes States winner-take-all renders such maps confusing. For example, The upper middle map shows the vote from the 2004 Presidential Election between Bush and Kerry – by area overwhelmingly red. Yet if you look at the actual 2004 vote, it’s not nearly such a huge win:
And, as we learned in 2000, the system we use [Electoral College] can elect a President who does not win the popular vote:
The map in the upper right shows the 2004 Presidential vote by county, with "close" counties in purple. It makes the map in the upper left make more sense – where the "swing vote" areas are. But the most useful map is the surrealistic map on the lower left. This map shows the vote adjusted for population density. The Democratic voters live in large islands with the Republicans in the spaces in between. These blue islands are our large urban areas. The red/blue mix is more reflective of the Republican/Democrat split in our country [urban vs Rural].
Finally, the two other maps show where the african-american and hispanic minorities live. Comparing these two maps to the top central 2004 vote map, it’s clear that the minorities have not made their weight felt, at least in Presidential elections. There are no "black" or "latino" States, but combining these two maps shows that there is a Minority America:
When I look at this data, it looks to me like there’s a split between two Americas – Urban and Rural. But I frankly think it’s a smoke screen. People in Cities live in a culturally diverse milieu and accept that view of America. Rural Anericans and Small Town Americans do not yet accept that view. This election cannot be about competence. The Republicans have been grossly incompetent by any parameter and John McCain hardly exudes competence.
So we have an African American Candidate running for President, and he’s not going to win with Minority votes – even if every African American, Latino American, or Asian American votes for him. This election, in my mind, calls the question. Are we what we say we are – "… your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free," or will racially based fears trump competence? We’ll see…
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