1 Boring Old Man

Mostly Daily Polling Report 9/18

It’s becoming clear that the Palin bounce is not only ending, but ending hard. The last few days have seen precipitous changes in the tracking polls, which will be followed by equivalent changes in the state polls. Many of the state polls released today were still in the field over the weekend, before political gravity overwhelmed the McCain campaign, so we should continue to see the trends in Obama’s favor for the next few days at least.

These polling reports were posted on Sundays, but there is now such quantity of polls coming out every day that compiling them for a week is becoming unmanageable. The plan is to release these updates daily in early evening Pacific time unless I’m too busy. Today’s report covers the 4 days since Sunday with almost 50 polls in the competitive states…

Michigan (Obama +4.1) 232 EV

^{Univ of Wisconsin Madison 9/14-17:
Obama 48
McCain 44}

Minnesota (Obama +3.7) 242 EV

^{Univ of Wisconsin Madison 9/14-17:
Obama 47
McCain 45}

Wisconsin (Obama +3.1) 252 EV

^{CNN/Time 9/14-16:
Obama 50
McCain 47
Rasmussen 9/16 (8/5):
Obama 48 (51)
McCain 46 (44)
Univ of Wisconsin Madison 9/14-17:
Obama 45
McCain 44}

Pennsylvania (Obama +1.6) 273 EV

^{Rasmussen 9/14 (9/7):
Obama 47 (47)
McCain 47 (45)
Univ of Wisconsin Madison 9/14-17:
Obama 45
McCain 45}

Ohio (McCain +0.8) 260 EV

^{Suffolk 9/10-13:
McCain 46
Obama 42
Rasmussen 9/14 (9/7):
McCain 48 (51)
Obama 45 (44)
Survey USA 9/12-14 (6/20-22):
McCain 49 (46)
Obama 45 (48)
Public Policy Polling 9/13-14 (8/12-14):
McCain 48 (45)
Obama 44 (45)
ARG 9/10-13:
McCain 50
Obama 44
CNN/Time 9/14-16 (8/31-9/2):
Obama 49 (47)
McCain 47 (45)
FD/National Journal 9/11-15:
McCain 42
Obama 41}

Florida (McCain +2.2) 240 EV

^{Rasmussen 9/14 (9/7):
McCain 49 (48)
Obama 44 (48)
CNN/Time 9/14-16:
Obama 48
McCain 48
ARG 9/10-13:
McCain 46
Obama 46
Survey USA 9/16-17 (8/1-3):
McCain 51 (50)
Obama 45 (44)
FD/National Journal 9/11-15:
Obama 44
McCain 44}