The upper figure is the yearly unemployment from the Great Depression. Below, I’ve extracted the yearly rate of change [this year – last year = % change/year]. What it shows is that in 1932, Hoover’s interventions were beginning to have an impact, even before FDR’s New Deal. Also notice what happened in 1937 when FDR jettisoned the New Deal restrictions too soon. I post this [in response to a question] to explain the contemporary one below that I’ve been posting since December:
What I’m trying to follow is the same parameter in the monthly unemployment figures. That slight downturn in the rate of change is either a sign of improvement or just an insignificant fluctuation. We’ll look again on May 8th when they release the Bureau of Labor Statistics figures. If du/dt is falling, it will be the first indicator that the economy is stabilizing. Hold your breath…
The other big statistic to watch is the Consumer Price Index. When it’s falling, it heralds a Deflationary Spiral [which is terrible news]. Last month’s value was good news. [it’s stopped falling] Here’s the graph from the Great Depression:
The next CPI wiill be out on May 15th…
Given the manipulation of the “basket of goods” the CPI measures, I wonder if it really is a relevant measure of anything. I will wait to see what you report on it, though. By the way, from a boring middle-aged man to a boring old man, great site.