something’s got to give…

Posted on Friday 12 June 2009


Confrontation Looming
Talking Points Memo
By Josh Marshall

There’s been a lot of talk about how Prime Minister Netanyahu will respond to President Obama’s insistence on a settlement freeze and whether he’ll announce a new position in his upcoming security speech. This article in today’s Ha’aretz says Netanyahu has come up with his answer. And it’s basically to tell Obama to go screw himself, though it’s couched in a lot of bilateral happy talk. He’s embracing the ‘road map’ but with a description that doesn’t sound like the actuall road map that everyone else is talking about and no freeze on settlements. Here’s an article which gives some sense of the pressures within his coalition which likely make it impossible to do anything else.

Netanyahu’s hope seems to be that he can square the circle by working out ‘informal understandings’ which will satisfy Obama while refusing a formal settlement freeze, and probably any settlement freeze at all. Meanwhile Israel President Peres [largely a ceremonial position — but of some consequence in this case because of who Peres is] is saying the parties should move immediately to stage two of the road map which would mean agreeing on the declaration of a Palestinian state with provisional borders.

With Netanyahu, I doubt he has the skills or vision to manage this. And it’s hard to see how his government survives long.
Well framed by Josh Marshall. President Obama aimed his confrontation directly at the central point into the heart of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict – the settlements. Here’s the map again:
While it’s easy to see why the Israeli want the settlements, it’s equally impossible to see any justification for their claims. While the settlers say that God gave them the land along the Jordon River in ancient times, recent history says they took it by force in their 1967 war. But what Obama said is a more rational point:
  • There is only one possible solution to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict – two states, Israel and Palestine.
  • Unrestricted "settlement" of Palestine by the Israelis is not compatible with a two state solution.
Where that will lead is unclear, given the situation on that map. The Israelis ignore it as the problem. The Palestinians see little else. So, Obama called the question and  Netanyahu represents the "other side." Where will it lead? Josh says that it may well lead Netanyahu out of power. As the old song says, "Something’s got to give."

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