In the end, there was no Casus Belli for our invasion of Iraq. Saddam Hussein’s defiance of the UN was against the UN Resolutions, and even at the time of our invasion, the UN was unwilling to sanction military action. In fact, the UN doubted our Casus Belli – declaring the evidence for WMDs inconclusive, probably wrong. But the Bush Administration continued with grim determination to attempt to create a case for war literally out of thin air. I won’t document all the now sea of incriminating evidence, but I do want to list the various threads in their frantic efforts and the agencies involved.
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DoD/OSP: Immediately after 911, Donald Rumsfeld asked Paul Wolfowitz to find al Qaeda/Iraq connections, a task he assigned to Douglas Feith. Feith came up with thirty plus pieces of evidence for that connection, which he then leaked to the Weekly Standard. All of that data turned out to be false. Feith later claimed that his list was hypothetical, designed to show the CIA that they were unwilling to consider State sponsorship of Terrorism.
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CIA/DoJ: As they began to accumulate al Qaeda captives, John Yoo provided a group of Legal Memos condoning Torture by calling it something else. So high value detainees were tortured looking for al Qaeda/Iraq connections – some at Gitmo and some overseas. They only succeeded in getting one such confession [from
Ibn al-Shaykh al-Libi] who later recanted, reporting that he told his interrogators what they wanted to hear in order to keep them from killing him. He recently died in a Lybian prison supposedly from suicide, though many of us suspect he was murdered.
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The Niger Forgeries: There had been an already debunked set of forged documents alleging the purchase of Uranium by Iraq from Niger. These documents were revived and pushed by the Italian Secret Service [who knew them to be false]. They were the source of Bush’s "sixteen words" in his 2003 SOTUS. By the time of the push for war, the CIA and the UN had certified the documents as forgeries.
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Ahmad Chalabi and the Iraqi National Congress: Amhad Chalabi supplied all kinds of intelligence [except the true kind]. The Germans interrogated one of his plants, "Curveball," who they didn’t believe – but we used the information anyway. Chalabi and his people were sources for Colin Powell’s speech to the UN and for numerous reporters – notably Judith Miller of the New York Times. When it became clear that Chalabi’s information was fraudulent, he said, "We are heroes in error. As far as we’re concerned, we’ve been entirely successful. That tyrant Saddam is gone and the Americans are in Baghdad. What was said before is not important. The Bush administration is looking for a scapegoat."
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The Aluminum Tubes: Much ado was made of a shipment of aluminum tubes for rocket housings that we claimed, erroneously, were being used for centrifuging Uranium – a claim refuted by all experts.
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Fuzzy Math: In Colin Powell’s UN speech, he claimed that Iraq had large quantities of biological weaponry – giving precise numbers. Those numbers were computed by guestimating the amount of material Iraq would have if their plants ran at 100% efficiency and subtracting the amount they found after the Gulf War. After we invaded, it wasn’t found [because it never existed]. Their plants never ran at 100% efficiency.
The case for war was all conjecture, never certified by the CIA or other Intelligence Agencies, all fabricated on the thinnest of evidence, and all dead wrong. The UN knew it, our traditional Allies knew it, I knew it, and I think Cheney did too. In spite of all the pressure they applied to get what they wanted to hear, they only came up with the flimsiest of cases. Looking back at it now, it would seem comical if so many people hadn’t died as a result. There’s no need to peruse any documents to get the point. But there is one document worth remembering – the most damning one of them all known as the
Downing Street Memo:
KEY DOCUMENT 13: The Downing Street Memo was leaked in the Spring of 2005, but got very little Press time in the US. It is the Minutes from a meeting at Number 10 Downing Street in London where the head of the British Secret Service reported on his recent visit to Washington.
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| IRAQ: PRIME MINISTER’S MEETING, 23 JULY |
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This record is extremely sensitive. No further copies should be made. It should be shown only to those with a genuine need to know its contents.
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John Scarlett summarised the intelligence and latest JIC assessment. Saddam’s regime was tough and based on extreme fear. The only way to overthrow it was likely to be by massive military action. Saddam was worried and expected an attack, probably by air and land, but he was not convinced that it would be immediate or overwhelming. His regime expected their neighbours to line up with the US. Saddam knew that regular army morale was poor. Real support for Saddam among the public was probably narrowly based.
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C reported on his recent talks in Washington. There was a perceptible shift in attitude. Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime’s record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action.
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CDS said that military planners would brief CENTCOM on 1-2 August, Rumsfeld on 3 August and Bush on 4 August.
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The two broad US options were: (a) Generated Start. A slow build-up of 250,000 US troops, a short (72 hour) air campaign, then a move up to Baghdad from the south. Lead time of 90 days (30 days preparation plus 60 days deployment to Kuwait). (b) Running Start. Use forces already in theatre (3 x 6,000), continuous air campaign, initiated by an Iraqi casus belli. Total lead time of 60 days with the air campaign beginning even earlier. A hazardous option.
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The US saw the UK (and Kuwait) as essential, with basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus critical for either option. Turkey and other Gulf states were also important, but less vital. The three main options for UK involvement were: (i) Basing in Diego Garcia and Cyprus, plus three SF squadrons. (ii) As above, with maritime and air assets in addition. (iii) As above, plus a land contribution of up to 40,000, perhaps with a discrete role in Northern Iraq entering from Turkey, tying down two Iraqi divisions.
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The Defence Secretary said that the US had already begun "spikes of activity" to put pressure on the regime. No decisions had been taken, but he thought the most likely timing in US minds for military action to begin was January, with the timeline beginning 30 days before the US Congressional elections.
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The Foreign Secretary said he would discuss this with Colin Powell this week. It seemed clear that Bush had made up his mind to take military action, even if the timing was not yet decided. But the case was thin. Saddam was not threatening his neighbours, and his WMD capability was less than that of Libya, North Korea or Iran. We should work up a plan for an ultimatum to Saddam to allow back in the UN weapons inspectors. This would also help with the legal justification for the use of force.
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The Attorney-General said that the desire for regime change was not a legal base for military action. There were three possible legal bases: self-defence, humanitarian intervention, or UNSC authorisation. The first and second could not be the base in this case. Relying on UNSCR 1205 of three years ago would be difficult. The situation might of course change.
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The Prime Minister said that it would make a big difference politically and legally if Saddam refused to allow in the UN inspectors. Regime change and WMD were linked in the sense that it was the regime that was producing the WMD. There were different strategies for dealing with Libya and Iran. If the political context were right, people would support regime change. The two key issues were whether the military plan worked and whether we had the political strategy to give the military plan the space to work.
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On the first, CDS said that we did not know yet if the US battleplan was workable. The military were continuing to ask lots of questions.
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For instance, what were the consequences, if Saddam used WMD on day one, or if Baghdad did not collapse and urban warfighting began? You said that Saddam could also use his WMD on Kuwait. Or on Israel, added the Defence Secretary.
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The Foreign Secretary thought the US would not go ahead with a military plan unless convinced that it was a winning strategy. On this, US and UK interests converged. But on the political strategy, there could be US/UK differences. Despite US resistance, we should explore discreetly the ultimatum. Saddam would continue to play hard-ball with the UN.
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John Scarlett assessed that Saddam would allow the inspectors back in only when he thought the threat of military action was real.
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The Defence Secretary said that if the Prime Minister wanted UK military involvement, he would need to decide this early. He cautioned that many in the US did not think it worth going down the ultimatum route. It would be important for the Prime Minister to set out the political context to Bush.
Conclusions:
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We should work on the assumption that the UK would take part in any military action. But we needed a fuller picture of US planning before we could take any firm decisions. CDS should tell the US military that we were considering a range of options.
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The Prime Minister would revert on the question of whether funds could be spent in preparation for this operation.
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CDS would send the Prime Minister full details of the proposed military campaign and possible UK contributions by the end of the week.
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The Foreign Secretary would send the Prime Minister the background on the UN inspectors, and discreetly work up the ultimatum to Saddam.
He would also send the Prime Minister advice on the positions of countries in the region especially Turkey, and of the key EU member states.
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John Scarlett would send the Prime Minister a full intelligence update.
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We must not ignore the legal issues: the Attorney-General would consider legal advice with FCO/MOD legal advisers.
(I have written separately to commission this follow-up work.)
MATTHEW RYCROFT
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"Military action was now seen as inevitable. Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action, justified by the conjunction of terrorism and WMD. But the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy. The NSC had no patience with the UN route, and no enthusiasm for publishing material on the Iraqi regime’s record. There was little discussion in Washington of the aftermath after military action."
Note the date – July 23, 2002. So by July, the Bush Administration had already decided to invade Iraq independent of what the UN said. The Casus Belli would be "the conjunction of terrorism and WMD" and "the intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy." In my way of thinking, this seals the issue for all time. Two months before the public campaign for the war, a British envoy returned to London from Washington to report that "Bush wanted to remove Saddam, through military action" – period. The intelligence was being jury-rigged to fit what he "wanted." All of our upcoming trips to the UN were for show.
Simply put, there was no case for war…
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