| MONTH | JAN | FEB | MAR | APR | MAY | JUN | JUL | AUG | SEP | OCT | NOV | DEC | ||
| QUARTER | i | ii | iii | iv | ||||||||||
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| 2005 | CPI | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | -0.8 | -0.4 | |
| GDP | 4.1 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.1 | ||||||||||
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| 2006 | CPI | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.1 | |
| GDP | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.1 | 3.0 | ||||||||||
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| 2007 | CPI | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.6 | -0.1 | |
| GDP | 1.2 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | ||||||||||
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| 2008 | CPI | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -1.0 | -1.9 | -1.0 | |
| GDP | -0.7 | 1.5 | -2.7 | -5.4 | ||||||||||
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| 2009 | CPI | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | |||||||
| GDP | -6.4 | -1.0 | ||||||||||||
I know my number obsession is getting boring. It’s even that way with me, and it’s my obsession. The thing I’m trying to figure is how it’s going to go. Insofar as I can see, we’re on the brink of recovery. The second quarter Gross Domestic Product turned around meaning we’r starting to make things again and the Consumer Price Index has remained positive suggesting that the Deflationary Spiral has been avoided. Friday morning, we get June’s Unemployment figures. Looking at the history of previous Recessions [below], once things turn around, improvement is usually fairly rapid. The question for the moment is are we headed into recovery? But more importantly: Is this Recession unique? Is there reason to worry that it won’t follow the usual course? As I see it, there are several reasons to worry that it is, indeed, different.
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This Recession followed a number of financial bubbles, particularly the housing bubble, that will continue to afflict the building industry for some time. We are way overbuilt, so new starts will probably lag for quite a while.
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Americans have been living on credit. Debt service and bankruptcies will continue even when the economy picks up.
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The Derivative Market [something new] is still unregulated and chaotic.
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The Automobile industry is in the toilet in a big way.
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The Financial industry is aggressive and as yet unrepentant.
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The Republican Party and the Right seems to really want Obama to fail.
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The Health Care Industries continue to bleed the economy.
On the other side of the equation, All Recessions seem unique while they’re happening, and aren’t over until they’re over. There are always things like this to worry about, and yet we bounce back. My wish is that the Recovery is sufficient to influence the 2010 midterm elections in a Democratic way – so that getting the right things done is not running against such a gradient. Eight years of Bush/Cheney has been a disaster, and it will require a concerted effort to make the needed structural changes to recover as a nation, not just a short term economy…
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