Obama is wrong. Volcker is right…

Posted on Wednesday 21 October 2009


Volcker’s Voice Fails to Sell a Bank Strategy
New York Times

By LOUIS UCHITELLE
October 20, 2009

Listen to a top economist in the Obama administration describe Paul A. Volcker, the former Federal Reserve chairman who endorsed Mr. Obama early in his election campaign and who stood by his side during the financial crisis. “The guy’s a giant, he’s a genius, he is a great human being,” said Austan D. Goolsbee, counselor to Mr. Obama since their Chicago days. “Whenever he has advice, the administration is very interested.” Well, not lately. The aging Mr. Volcker has some advice, deeply felt. He has been offering it in speeches and Congressional testimony, and repeating it to those around the president, most of them young enough to be his children.

He wants the nation’s banks to be prohibited from owning and trading risky securities, the very practice that got the biggest ones into deep trouble in 2008. And the administration is saying no, it will not separate commercial banking from investment operations. “I am not pounding the desk all the time, but I am making my point,” Mr. Volcker said in one of his infrequent on-the-record interviews. “I have talked to some senators who asked me to talk to them, and if people want to talk to me, I talk to them. But I am not going around knocking on doors.”

Still, he does head the president’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, which makes him the administration’s most prominent outside economic adviser. As Fed chairman from 1979 to 1987, he helped the country weather more than one crisis. And in the campaign last year, he appeared occasionally with Mr. Obama, including a town hall meeting in Florida last fall. His towering presence [he is 6-foot-8] offered reassurance that the candidate’s economic policies, in the midst of a crisis, were trustworthy.

More subtly, Mr. Obama has in Mr. Volcker an adviser perceived as standing apart from Wall Street, and critical of its ways, some administration officials say, while Timothy F. Geithner, the Treasury secretary, and Lawrence H. Summers, chief of the National Economic Council, are seen, rightly or wrongly, as more sympathetic to the concerns of investment bankers. For all these reasons, Mr. Volcker’s approach to financial regulation cannot be just brushed off — and Mr. Goolsbee, speaking for the administration, is careful not to do so. “We have discussed these issues with Paul Volcker extensively,” he said. Mr. Volcker’s proposal would roll back the nation’s commercial banks to an earlier era, when they were restricted to commercial banking and prohibited from engaging in risky Wall Street activities…

The Obama team, in contrast, would let the giants survive, but would regulate them extensively, so they could not get themselves and the nation into trouble again. While the administration’s proposal languishes, giants like Goldman Sachs have re-engaged in old trading practices, once again earning big profits and planning big bonuses. Mr. Volcker argues that regulation by itself will not work. Sooner or later, the giants, in pursuit of profits, will get into trouble. The administration should accept this and shield commercial banking from Wall Street’s wild ways…
Background: from the Depression IV:
Over the period between the Crash and the 1932 election, there had been recurrent runs on various Banks around the country, and a number of Banks had gone under. In the "lame duck" period between F.D.R.’s election and his inauguration, there was a big run on the Bank in Detroit in anticipation of his inauguration. Bank Runs were the target of his famous inaugural quote, "We have nothing to fear but fear itself." On the day after his Inauguration, he declared a Bank Holiday, shutting down the runs on Banks in their tracks and putting some teeth into his inspiring words.

Banking Regulations: Within three months, Congress passed the Glass-Stegall Act [which became known as The Banking Act of 1933]. This reform legislation had two parts:
  • The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation [FDIC]: In order to put a stop to the destructive runs on Banks, the Federal Government got into the Insurance business, insuring Savings Accounts for up to $100,000 in case of Bank failure.
  • The Separation and Regulation of Commercial and Investment Banks: This is the part known as regulation. Hearings disclosed obvious conflicts of interest when Banks invest money from their vast holdings in Savings Accounts. So, the Bill imposed strong restrictions on investing by these banks [Commercial Banks]. Likewise, the behavior of Banks that were involved in investing were also heavily regulated. The design here was clear, In the boom before the Crash, Banks had loaned money to people to put in the Market and had invested their assets as well. Glass-Stegall imposed restrictions to stop speculators from using other people’s money. Bank size [merger] was also regulated.
F.D.R.’s early measures marked a radical intrusion of the government into the country’s financial system and stemmed the panic and chaos of the three years since the Crash. The Stock Market came up and the Banking Indistry was stabilized.
Background: from the Deregulation I:
In 1994, the Republicans won a majority in the House and Senate called "the contract with America." Except for short periods after World War II, this hadn’t happened since the Depression. The Democratic President, Bill Clinton, was under attack throughout [Whitewater, Monica, etc.]. He was finally impeached towards the end of his term for lying about his affair with a White House Intern, but not convicted in the Senate. Towards the end of his term, two Bills from the Congress finally ended the Roosevelt post-Depression regulations on Banks, and provided an end run around SEC Oversight. Both Bills were initiated by Senator Phil Gramm from Texas, who then retired from the government.

Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999:
    The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act … is an Act of the United States Congress which repealed part of the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, opening up competition among banks, securities companies and insurance companies. The Glass-Steagall Act prohibited a bank from offering investment, commercial banking, and insurance services.

    The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA) allowed commercial and investment banks to consolidate. For example, Citibank merged with Travelers Group, an insurance company, and in 1998 formed the conglomerate Citigroup, a corporation combining banking and insurance underwriting services under brands including Smith-Barney, Shearson, Primerica and Travelers Insurance Corporation. This combination, announced in 1993 and finalized in 1994, would have violated the Glass-Steagall Act and the Bank Holding Company Act by combining insurance and securities companies, if not for a temporary waiver process. The law was passed to legalize these mergers on a permanent basis. Historically, the combined industry has been known as the financial services industry.
This Bill essentially repealed the Glass-Stegall Act. Things were back to pre-1929-Crash conditions. Again, there was a blurring of Bank/Broker distinctions and megaBanks proliferated…
The Glass-Stegall Act was brilliant. Besides establishing the FDIC, it made a simple distinction between Banks that handled our personal financial transactions, and Banks to be used for more speculative investment of our money – separating safe from risky [profit-seeking]. The Act stood for 66 years and served us well in spite of a constant assault by the banking industry. Phil Gramm finally succeeded in repealing it in 1999 with the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. It only took a decade for the newly created financial industry that replaced Banks to send us down the tubes.

Paul Volcker "argues that regulation by itself will not work. Sooner or later, the giants, in pursuit of profits, will get into trouble. The administration should accept this and shield commercial banking from Wall Street’s wild ways."

He is, of course, correct. The only reason not to reinstate the distinction betweem Commercial and Investment Banks is to allow Wall Street access to our money to play with, essentially without our consent. Barack Obama has done a lot of correct things, but this is a mistake waiting to happen. Listen to this old man!

The entirety of the financial industry that has created our current dilemma is focused on holding onto two things – both from former Senator Phil Gramm: the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act of 1999 [that created their playground] and the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 [that built the "Derivatives Market" on their playground]. Both things have to go. Our economy is not a playground. We gave them their chance and they blew it, big-time…
  1.  
    October 21, 2009 | 7:22 AM
     

    This may turn out to be Obama’s one big mistake — listening more to Larry Summers than to Paul Volkner. Your analysis and Volkner’s advice make so much sense that I am puzzled why Obama went the other way. He is too smart not to see it, so what could be his motive?

  2.  
    October 21, 2009 | 12:16 PM
     

    It’s hard to say. Geitner and Summers are financial industry types. Obama doesn’t like rocking the boat too hard. Maybe he thinks they will “make nice” [which obviously isn’t happening]. Maybe he’s afraid. Reviving Glass-Stegall would require a massive re-restructuring of the industry. While Obama’s reasons matter, his being wrong on this means dooming us to having to go around yet again, with probably worse consequences. The call of the bonus and the profit is too strong to count on any deterrent this side of a full Glass-Stegall redux. I say this like I know a lot, and I don’t. But to me, this is a complete no-brainer – 66 years, things work; 10 years, things break; Ergo…

  3.  
    October 21, 2009 | 6:08 PM
     

    Yea — that last sentence says it all. why isn’t it obvious to everyone in D C?

    Is it just too hard to do? Do the Wall Street CEOs have that much clout? Are we just in awe of them and can’t say to them: ENOUGH.

  4.  
    Carl
    October 22, 2009 | 9:06 AM
     

    Big organizations like to restructure….it gives them something to actually DO. They get to move assets around, they move everybody’s cheese, and “reposition” themselves to “respond” with, say, alacrity, to “opportunities in their markets”, yada yada. Indeed, they whip themselves up into a general frenzy all the while anticipating that it will turn out to be profitable, that they’ll recoup their “investments” (read squanderings) and still deliver “shareholder value”. The financial services people went through all this massive re-structuring when Glass-Stegall was relegated to the dustbin and by God they can very well do it again after having, (wouldn’t you imagine), been soundly chastened by the collapse of the house of cards built in its stead? Think I’ll go find me a CPA today and pee on his shoe.

  5.  
    Mickey
    October 22, 2009 | 5:16 PM
     

    I was gone all day to Ashville NC [Fall in the Nantahala Forest peaks today by my reckoning – gorgeous], and I had time to think about it. Without Glass Stegall, we really almost have to keep our money in play in the Market to keep up with inflation. The financial industry has essentially ablated “savings accounts” where the interest came from the interest charged to borrowers [from the same Bank]. Now, our money is in the Sock Market, no matter where we think we put it. So I expect the great resistance is their access to our capital. With Glass-Stegall, we chose [Commercial Bank versus Investment Bank]. It’s a sticky point, but it is our money we’re they’re talking about. I was wondering if Obama and his advisers are worried about our pulling money out of the economy, along with everything else there is to worry about. Carl’s point is well taken, they love restructuring. It gives them a reason to be, and to talk their strange lingo. But I don’t think they love downsizing…

  6.  
    October 25, 2009 | 5:41 PM
     

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