1 Boring Old Man

Iran Roiled, Crowds Burn Banks, Police Station Chanting against Theocrat Khamenei But No Revolutionary Alternative Yet
Informed Comment
Thoughts on the Middle East, History, and Religion
by Juan Cole
Monday, December 28, 2009

The BBC is reporting that clashes are continuing into Monday morning between protesters and the regime security forces in Tehran and perhaps other cities, marking the first decisive failure of the basij paramilitary to control the streets by early morning of the day of a big demonstration. The number of protesters allegedly killed by security men rose to 9, with dozens wounded and 300 persons allegedly arrested. This video is allegedly from Monday morning and shows protesters freeing others taken prisoner in a basij van:

The chanting on Sunday turned against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself, not just against President Ahmadinejad. He was castigated as the Dictator and as worse than the old shah, and the very ideological basis of the regime, the doctrine of clerical rule, was chanted against in the streets. The legitimacy of the regime, profoundly shaken by the events since early June’s presidential election, is now being shredded further.

Another remarkable dimension of Sunday’s events was the sheer number of cities where significant rallies and clashes occurred. Some of those allegedly killed are said to have fallen in Tabriz, a northwestern metropolis near Turkey. Even conservative cities such as Isfahan and Mashhad joined in. Shiraz, Ardabil, the list goes on. The attempt of some analysts to paint the disturbances as a shi-shi North Tehran thing has clearly foundered.

The most ominous sign of all for the regime is the reports of security men refusing orders to fire into the crowd…

1. In Islam, Mohamed was not the only Prophet, he was the last Prophet. If the Prophets only speak the truth, why did God [Allah] need to send multiple Prophets? Because the translators of the earlier Prophets corrupted their words. Thus, Islam focuses on preventing false translations of the Quran [holy book] and Hadith [narratives of the Prophet’s life]. Mohamed was illiterate so his teachings were, by definition, written down by others [translation?]. And they have all kind of scholarship focused on correct translation? Very confusing to me…
2. There are two major Islamic Sects: Sunni and Shia. They split in the early days of Islam around the issue of succession – who would lead after Mohamed died? The gist of things is that Ali, first cousin of Mohamed and married to Mohamed’s daughter was not chosen as the first leader though many suggested he was picked by Mohamed. His son, Husayn ibn Ali [Hussein], was martyred on the 10th of Muharram, AH 61 (October 10, 680), in Karbala, Iraq. The event led to the split between the Sunni and Shia sects of Islam, and it is of central importance in Shia Islam who follow Ali. I have no understanding at all of why succession became such a big deal.

When we were in Egypt and also in Jordan, I was surprised that bringing up Shiites was met with frowns and reassurances that neither country had very many of them, and that they were ostracized. I hadn’t realized that it was such a hostile division. It wasn’t because we were Americans – bin Laden is a Sunni. It felt like a real hostility. It reminded me of how some southern Protestants used to bristle at the mention of Catholicism when I was a kid. I recall several occasions when the mothers of friends would question me [I think because of my Italian name] and seemed relieved when I wasn’t Catholic. This reaction to the Shia reminded me of that. The only thing I learned is that the Shia call to prayer is different. The call There is one God, Allah, and his last Prophet is Mohamed is lengthened with something like and and Ali was his beloved.

At last, I get to my point. The martyrdom of Husayn was seen as a clash between good and evil. Husayn was killed on a journey to fight oppression by a false leader. The rememberance is something like the Christian Penetentes or Flagellants who beat themselves to remember Jesus’ persecution. The fact that the riots and anti-government demonstrations all over Iran have broken out on Ashura seems very significant to me. It says to me that many Iranians see the current leaders [Ayatollah Khamenei and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad] as false leaders. It suggests that their only source of power is military [secular] rather than from God. In addition, Ahmadinejad’s rival Mir Hussein Moussavi’s nephew, Ali Moussavi, has been reported killed in the riots. This parallel to Ashura [the martyrdom of younger family member] is downright eerie and is sure to be picked up by the opposition [a second Martyr, after Neda]. Then there’s this:

Police Are Said to Have Killed 10 in Iran Protests
New York Times
By ROBERT F. WORTH and NAZILA FATHI
December 27, 2009

Unlike the other protesters reported killed on Sunday, Ali Moussavi appears to have been assassinated in a political gesture aimed at his uncle, according to Mohsen Makhmalbaf, an opposition figure based in Paris with close ties to the Moussavi family.

Mr. Moussavi was first run over by a sport utility vehicle outside his home, Mr. Makhmalbaf wrote on his Web site. Five men then emerged from the car, and one of them shot Mr. Moussavi. Government officials took the body late Sunday and warned the family not to hold a funeral, Mr. Makhmalbaf wrote.

Since we got back, I have been trying to understand Islam and the Middle East better – particularly the 20th century part. I’m nowhere near clear about any of it, but I have a few pieces that seem to be clearer than others. The history of the spread of Islam a mixture of conquest and holy war. And it’s impossible to separate the two. The Muslim countries are theocratic, even when they’re not. When the Ottoman Empire was ended at the end of the first World War, Arab countries were divided by the League of Nations under "Mandates." So Egypt and Jordan, for example, had Kings, but were under England in some way. After World War II, the U.N. formed Israel and the Mandates were lifted. Since then, there have been a series of wars, revolutions, and coups that shaped the current map of the Middle East.

At last, I get to my other point. The Arab world has plenty of reason to resent foreign meddling in their affairs [likewise, there have been plenty of reasons for people to meddle in their affairs]. George Bush, Dick Cheney, and John Bolton seemed determined to try to shape the future of Iran [with their favorite methodology – bombs] just like they tried to create an Iraq in their own image. Obama seems to have more sense about them – sort of a walk softly but carry a big stick approach. The Arab people are smart cookies living in a harsh part of the world strapped with a more than confusing history. While they are a dangerous lot [Iran Hostage Crisis, 9/11, al Qaeda, PLO, Hamas, Hezbolla], it seems to me that our old policy towards the Communist Bloc [containment] is exactly what we need to do right now. The "Bush Doctrine" and Cheney’s "American Exceptionalism" were ill-conceived and total flops [worse than that even]. The people on the streets of Iran are going to prevail sooner or later. It’s just the way things work.