dominos…

Posted on Thursday 24 June 2010


Against The Super-Asinine, The Gods Themselves Contend in Vain
New York Time

by Paul Krugman
June 23, 2010

Brad DeLong wonders how the proponents of tight budgets and tight money are prevailing in the midst of mass unemployment, low interest rates, and incipient deflation. It’s actually not all that surprising. Horrifying, but not surprising.

The case for expansionary policies in the face of a slump is intellectually difficult; Keynes described the writing of the General Theory as a painful process of discovery, and so it is. The natural instinct of almost everyone is to think that tough times require tough measures, and that if the economy is suffering, the government should tighten its own belt. It would take a clear consensus from economists to overcome that natural bias.

And that consensus has, of course, been lacking — largely because a significant proportion of the economics profession has spent the last three decades systematically destroying the hard-won knowledge of macroeconomics. It’s truly a new Dark Age, in which famous professors are reinventing errors refuted 70 years ago, and calling them insights.

On top of that, anti-stimulus appeals to a fundamental meanness of spirit that is always present in the political world. The super-asinine we shall always have with us. May I say that I expected something like this? It’s part of the reason I was so anxious to see Obama go for the maximum stimulus possible: it seemed obvious that he would have only one shot. And because that shot wasn’t big enough, I really do think we’re looking at a lost decade.
He did say it. Over and over until it became annoying. But he was right. At the time, I thought he was right, but we could do it in stages – that we’d have another chance when we saw what was needed. But Krugman saw it more clearly –  "May I say that I expected something like this? It’s part of the reason I was so anxious to see Obama go for the maximum stimulus possible: it seemed obvious that he would have only one shot." He was absolutely right. I was wrong. My bad. Worse, Obama’s bad. I guess that’s why Krugman gets the big bucks, an op-ed column in the New York Times, and the Nobel Prize.

I guess it’s like those Domino games where you line them up and push only one to bring them all down. Low-balling the Stimulus makes Healthcare Reform and Surging in Afghanistan look like loser decisions too. To add to the Job-like [Job, as in the guy in the Bible] qualities of our story, the Gulf of Mexico is filling up with oil and all we can do is wail. The extreme irony is that we low-balled the Stimulus because TARP had been so large and the Republicans wanted to cut taxes as a stimulus [gag]. So, politically, the people who gain are the cause of the problem in the first place.

Another possibility is that there was NO EXIT – no matter what we did. Maybe Capitalism has to collapse every 79 years just to get to know itself. Maybe Krugman’s notion that the Gospel of John Keynes could be applied without hitting rock bottom was naive in the first place. Maybe there’s not a 20th Century solution that would’ve worked. Whatever the case, this looks like it’s going to be a hell of a ride that’s not pretty. It seems to me like we need some creative thinking – something new…

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.