{"id":20020,"date":"2012-02-22T12:09:13","date_gmt":"2012-02-22T17:09:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/?p=20020"},"modified":"2012-02-22T12:22:13","modified_gmt":"2012-02-22T17:22:13","slug":"significant-i","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2012\/02\/22\/significant-i\/","title":{"rendered":"<em>significant<\/em> I&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p align=\"justify\">There has been no recent issue as hotly contested as the question of whether the SSRIs can induce suicidal thinking, particularly in youth. In 2004, the FDA added a black-box warning to the SSRIs, resulting in a fall in prescribing, and a polarized literature on this topic that lives on. Recently, the focus has been on the Treatment for Adolescents with Depression Study [TADS], first published in 2004. I walked in on an email discussion of several recent articles and found myself kind of confused. So first, I thought I&#8217;d gather the relevant links for anyone who might want to read along [most articles available on-line]:                   <\/p>\n<hr width=\"75%\/\" size=\"1\" \/>\n<div align=\"justify\">A. There&#8217;s a full bibliography from TADS on the ClinicalTrials.gov site [first reference]. These articles are the ones I thought were relevant to the discussion of suicidality:                  <\/div>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<div align=\"justify><a href=\"><\/a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/clinicaltrials.gov\/ct2\/show\/NCT00006286\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Treatment for Adolescents With Depression Study (TADS)<\/font><\/strong><\/u><\/a><br \/>                          NCT00006286 on <strong><font color=\"#200020\">ClinicalTrials.gov<\/font><\/strong><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div align=\"justify\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/jama.ama-assn.org\/content\/292\/7\/807.long\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Fluoxetine, Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy, and Their Combination for Adolescents With Depression<\/font><\/strong><\/u><\/a><br \/>                             <sup>by the Treatment for Adolescents With Depression Study (TADS) Team<\/sup><br \/>                             <strong><font color=\"#200020\">JAMA<\/font><\/strong>. 2004 292(7):807-820. <strong>[<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/jama.ama-assn.org\/content\/292\/7\/807.long\"><font color=\"#200020\">full text on-line<\/font><\/a>]<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div align=\"justify\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pubmed\/17135989\" target=\"_blank\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Treatment for Adolescents with Depression Study (TADS): SafetyResults<\/font><\/strong><\/u><\/a>.<br \/>                         <sup>by Emslie G, Kratochvil C, Vitiello B, Silva S, et al.<\/sup><br \/>                         <strong><font color=\"#200020\">Journal of the Amer Acad of Child and Adolesc Psychiatry<\/font><\/strong>. 2006  45(12):1440-55.<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/archpsyc.ama-assn.org\/cgi\/content\/full\/64\/10\/1132\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">The Treatment for Adolescents With Depression Study (TADS)<\/font><\/strong><\/u><\/a><br \/>                         <strong><font color=\"#200020\"><sup>Long-term Effectiveness and Safety Outcomes<\/sup><\/font><\/strong><br \/>                         <sup>by The TADS Team<\/sup><br \/>                         <strong><font color=\"#200020\">Archives of General Psychiatry<\/font><\/strong>. 2007 64(10):1132-1143. [<strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/archpsyc.ama-assn.org\/cgi\/content\/full\/64\/10\/1132\"><u><font color=\"#200020\">full text on-line<\/font><\/u><\/a><\/strong>]<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC2702701\/\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Suicidal Events in the Treatment for Adolescents with Depression Study (TADS)<\/font><\/strong><\/u><\/a><br \/>                       <sup>by Benedetto Vitiello, Susan Silva, Paul Rohde, Christopher Kratochvil, et al.<\/sup><br \/>                       <strong><font color=\"#200020\">Journal of Clinical Psychiatry<\/font><\/strong>. 2009 70(5): 741&ndash;747. [<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC2702701\/\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">full text on-line<\/font><\/strong><\/u><\/a>]<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<div align=\"justify\">B. There was a recent article by Gibbons reanalyzing TADS that reached some contended conclusions. My two response blogs have links to Gibbons&#8217; previous articles, other takes on the question of SSRI suicidality, and various opinions about the effect of the 2004 black box warning:                   <\/div>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<div align=\"justify\"><a href=\"http:\/\/archpsyc.ama-assn.org\/cgi\/reprint\/archgenpsychiatry.2011.2048\" target=\"_blank\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Suicidal Thoughts and Behavior With Antidepressant Treatment<\/font><\/strong><\/u><\/a><br \/>                               <strong><font color=\"#200020\"><sup>Reanalysis of the Randomized Placebo-Controlled Studies of Fluoxetine and Venlafaxine<\/sup><\/font><\/strong><br \/>                                 <sup>by Robert D. Gibbons, Hendricks Brown, Kwan Hur, John M. Davis, and J. John Mann<\/sup><br \/>                                 <strong><font color=\"#200020\">Archives of General Psychiatry<\/font><\/strong>. Online February 6, 2012. [<a href=\"http:\/\/archpsyc.ama-assn.org\/cgi\/reprint\/archgenpsychiatry.2011.2048\" target=\"_blank\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">full text on-line<\/font><\/strong><\/u><\/a>]<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div><u><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2012\/02\/09\/a-book-review\"><font color=\"#200020\">a book review&hellip;<\/font><\/a><\/strong><\/u><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div><u><strong><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2012\/02\/10\/sometimes-4\"><font color=\"#200020\">sometimes&hellip;&nbsp;<\/font><\/a><\/strong><\/u><\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<div align=\"justify\">C. Recent commentary from David Healy and Robert Whitaker about TADS and Gibbons&#8217; article:                  <\/div>\n<ol>\n<li>\n<div><a href=\"http:\/\/davidhealy.org\/coincidence-a-fine-thing?utm_source=feedburner&#038;utm_medium=email&#038;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DrDavidHealy+%28Dr.+David+Healy%29\" target=\"_blank\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Coincidence a fine thing<\/font><\/strong><\/u><\/a><br \/>             <sup>by  Dr. David Healy<\/sup><br \/>             February 8, 2012<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div><a href=\"http:\/\/www.madinamerica.com\/2012\/02\/the-real-suicide-data-from-the-tads-study-comes-to-light\/\" target=\"_blank\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">The Real Suicide Data from the TADS Study Comes to Light<\/font><\/strong><\/u><\/a><br \/>             <sup>by Robert Whitaker<\/sup><br \/>             February 20, 2012              <\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<hr width=\"75%\/\" size=\"1\" \/>\n<div align=\"justify\">All of this post&#8217;s discussion hinges on the reference A.5. above, the Vitiello et al article that has this conclusion in the abstract:<\/div>\n<ul>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Conclusions<\/font><\/strong><\/u><br \/>         <strong><font color=\"#990000\">Most  suicidal events occurred in the context of persistent depression and  insufficient improvement, without evidence of medication-induced  behavioral activation as a precursor<\/font><\/strong><strong>. Severity of self-rated suicidal  ideation and depressive symptoms predicted emergence of suicidality  during treatment. Risk for suicidal events did not decrease after the  first month of treatment, suggesting the need for careful clinical  monitoring for several months after starting treatment.<\/strong><\/sup><\/div>\n<\/ul>\n<div align=\"justify\">Whether you&#8217;ve read the voluminous literature on the topic about suicidality from SSRIs in adolescents or not, you&#8217;re likely aware that feelings run strong on this topic. At one pole are people who contend that the pharmaceutical companies and their supporters have suppressed the suicidality data motivated by a wish to sell drugs. At the other pole are those who say that it&#8217;s not true, and that vital treatment is being withheld from adolescents, and suggest this increases suicidal rates. None of the active participants in this debate have changed their minds along the way. So back to article A.5. It has this figure [Figure 1] of the timing of suicidal ideation and suicide attempts from the TADS study [PBO=Placebo, CBT=Cognitive Behavior Therapy, FLX=Prozac, and COMB=CBT+Prozac:<\/div>\n<p align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"500\" height=\"285\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/vitiello.gif\" \/><br \/> <sup>[reformatted for clarity]<\/sup><\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\">This is the same graph, except I&#8217;ve removed the &quot;suicidal ideation&quot; cohort, leaving only the &quot;suicidal behavior&quot; [suicide attempts] group:         <\/div>\n<p align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"500\" height=\"285\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/vitiello-1.gif\" \/><\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\">By count, there were 18 suicide attempts. 17 of them were by subjects on Prozac.&nbsp; To be fair, Vitiello et al were reporting that they did not see agitation prior to the suicide attempts, implying that drug induced akathisia wasn&#8217;t the cause of the suicide attempts. To my reading, this 17\/18 suicide attempts being on Prozac wasn&#8217;t discussed. The reason that people in all groups were on Prozac after 12 weeks had to do with the study design [see below]. <\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\">\n<ul>\n<div><strong><sup>TADS  was a publicly funded, randomized clinical trial to evaluate the acute  (12 weeks) and long-term (36 weeks) effectiveness of fluoxetine (FLX),  cognitive-behavior therapy (CBT), and their combination (COMB) in the  treatment of adolescents with major depressive disorder. A placebo condition was included as a control for the first 12 weeks,  after which all treatments were unblinded. Patients who were deemed  responders or partial responders, as documented by a score of minimally  improved or better on the Clinical Global Impression- Improvement scale  (CGI-I), continued with their assigned treatment up to the end of the 36-week  trial. Non-responders were discontinued from study treatment and managed  as clinically indicated while still participating in the remaining  assessments throughout week 36.<\/sup><\/strong><\/div>\n<\/ul><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\">That means that after 12 weeks, many [?] of the non-responders in the top two groups were put on Prozac and followed to 36 weeks. For completeness, here&#8217;s the data cropped for suicidal ideation only:<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"500\" vspace=\"5\" height=\"285\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/vitiello-2.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\">It still looks pretty bad for Prozac. 18 of the 26 patients with suicidal ideation [without attempt] were on Prozac. So the totals [suicidal ideation + suicidal behavior] was 36 of 44 suicidal events occurred in subjects on Prozac. So that&#8217;s Figure 1 from the paper. It seems clear enough. Now here&#8217;s Table 1 from the article:<\/div>\n<p align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"497\" height=\"310\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/vitiello-3.gif\" \/><br \/>     <sup>[reformatted to fit]<\/sup><\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\">Table 1 seems like it must come from another article. Take a look at it and compare it to Figure 1 and see if it makes any sense [it won&#8217;t]. See if the footnotes help [they don&#8217;t]. That&#8217;s part of what the <strong><font color=\"#200020\">David Healy<\/font><\/strong> and <strong><font color=\"#200020\">Robert Whitaker<\/font><\/strong> articles are about. Trying to make some sense of this morass [C.1. and C.2.]. Both authors give credit to <strong><font color=\"#200020\">G&ouml;ran H&ouml;gberg PhD<\/font><\/strong> from Stockholm, Sweden who figured this out. In his own words [from an email response]:<\/div>\n<ul>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup>TADS is worth a study on its own. The main, meagre results, are hidden in a mass of texts, take home messages and cutting edges &#8230; not any new data, just careful reading of what there is in the study. The result is shocking, because it really means that important risks are hidden. You can do the calculations yourself. Check it.<\/p>\n<p>     TADS was not a 36 week RCT, it was a 12 week RCT. In this article they claim in the abstract that it was a 36 week RCT. By doing that they can miscalculate the percentage with suicidal events. Suicidal events were defined as ideation or sucidal behaviour = added together as suicidal events. In the study after 12 weeks subjects were re-assigned, non-responding CBT and placebo participants were offered fluoxetine. We can clearly see the number of suicidal events &#8211; the black boxes and circles in figure 1. But they are not correctly assigned. If we are to give a percentage of subjects on placebo, all the subjects first on placebo and then on fluoxetine should be added to the fluoxetine group, leaving only true placebo. All the subjects who first had CBT and then got fluoxetine should be on the group of combined treatment. Both fig 1 and table 1 thus give false reporting, as percentage is calculated on the grouping of the first 12 weeks, not the full 36 weeks. The percentage of suicidal events in subjects on only fluoxetine, all fluoxetine, only CBT and combined CBT\/fluoxetine is shown in my table.<\/sup><\/div>\n<div align=\"left\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"480\" vspace=\"5\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/vitiello-4.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup>There were all in all 44 suicidal events over the 36 weeks, 36 of those events on fluoxetine. And in the abstract there is nothing of this mentioned.<\/sup><\/div>\n<\/ul>\n<div align=\"justify\">Obviously, this data has been massaged. The clear association of suicidality in these adolescents on Prozac [16%] compared to ones who weren&#8217;t [4%] has been lost in the clouds and isn&#8217;t mentioned in an article titled <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC2702701\/\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Suicidal Events in the Treatment for Adolescents with Depression Study (TADS)<\/font><\/strong><\/u><\/a> &#8211; an NIMH funded study. I call that <em>significant<\/em>&#8230;<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There has been no recent issue as hotly contested as the question of whether the SSRIs can induce suicidal thinking, particularly in youth. In 2004, the FDA added a black-box warning to the SSRIs, resulting in a fall in prescribing, and a polarized literature on this topic that lives on. Recently, the focus has been [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20020","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20020","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20020"}],"version-history":[{"count":64,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20020\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20090,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20020\/revisions\/20090"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20020"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20020"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20020"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}