{"id":2808,"date":"2009-01-12T11:01:13","date_gmt":"2009-01-12T16:01:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/?p=2808"},"modified":"2009-01-12T11:01:35","modified_gmt":"2009-01-12T16:01:35","slug":"clash-of-the-titans-ii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2009\/01\/12\/clash-of-the-titans-ii\/","title":{"rendered":"clash of the titans II&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p align=\"justify\">Man, this is better than a new video game!<\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\"><b><u>January 8th<\/u>:<\/b> Obama gave his <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2009\/01\/08\/us\/politics\/08text-obama.html?ref=opinion\"><font color=\"#300030\"><b>speech on the Economy<\/b><\/font><\/a>. <\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><b><u>January 9th<\/u>: <\/b>The next day, Nobel Laureate Economist NYT Columnist, Paul Krugman, responded with a column, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2009\/01\/09\/opinion\/09krugman.html?_r=1\"><font color=\"#300030\"><b>The Obama Gap<\/b><\/font><\/a>, which said:<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup>But Mr. Obama\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s prescription doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t live up to his diagnosis&#8230;<\/sup><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup>Why isn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t Mr. Obama trying to do more?<\/sup><\/div>\n<ul>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup>Is the plan being limited by fear of debt?<\/sup><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup>Is the plan being limited by a lack of spending opportunities?<\/sup><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup>Or is the plan being limited by political caution?<\/sup><\/div>\n<\/ul>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup> Whatever the explanation, the Obama plan just doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t look adequate to the economy\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s need&#8230;and the gap between Mr. Obama\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s stern economic rhetoric and his somewhat disappointing economic plan.<\/sup><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\"><b><u>January 10th<\/u>:<\/b>The following day, <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/thinkprogress.org\/2009\/01\/09\/obama-krugman-idea\/\"><b>Obama responded<\/b><\/a> to a reporter&#8217;s question with:<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup>I want this to work. This is not an intellectual exercise, and there is no pride of authorship. If members of Congress have good ideas, if they can identify a project for me that will create jobs in an efficient way, that does not hamper our ability to \u00e2\u20ac\u201d over the long term \u00e2\u20ac\u201d get control of our deficit, that is good for the economy, then I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m going to accept it. If Paul Krugman has a good idea, in terms of how to spend money efficiently and effectively to jump-start the economy, then we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re going to do it. If somebody has an idea for a tax cut that is better than a tax cut we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ve proposed, we will embrace it. So, you know, one of the things that I think I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m trying to communicate in this process is for everybody to get past the habit that sometimes occurs in Washington of whose idea is it, what ideological corner does it come from. Just show me. If you can show me that something is going to work, I will welcome it.<\/sup><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\">On the same day, the Report from Obama&#8217;s Economic team was released:<\/div>\n<p>    <\/p>\n<div align=\"center\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bogartmedia.com\/now\/ARARP.pdf\"><font color=\"#300030\"><b>The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan [pdf] <\/b><\/font><\/a><\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/ararp.gif\" border=\"0\" vspace=\"7\" width=\"511\" height=\"308\"\/><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><b><u>January 12th<\/u>: <\/b>So, this morning, we hear Krugman&#8217;s response in his <b>NYT<\/b> column.<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"center\">  <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2009\/01\/12\/opinion\/12krugman.html?hp\"><b>Ideas for Obama<\/b><\/a><br \/>                   By PAUL KRUGMAN<br \/>                   January 11, 2009<\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\"><sup>Last week President-elect Barack Obama was asked to respond to critics who say that his stimulus plan won\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t do enough to help the economy. Mr. Obama answered that he wants to hear ideas about \u00e2\u20ac\u0153how to spend money efficiently and effectively to jump-start the economy.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d<\/sup><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><sup><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/graphics8.nytimes.com\/images\/2006\/04\/02\/opinion\/ts-krugman-190.jpg\" align=\"right\" border=\"1\" height=\"110\" hspace=\"4\"\/>O.K., I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ll bite \u00e2\u20ac\u201d although as I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122ll explain shortly, the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153jump-start\u00e2\u20ac\u009d metaphor is part of the problem. First, Mr. Obama should scrap his proposal for $150 billion in business tax cuts, which would do little to help the economy. Ideally he\u00e2\u20ac\u2122d scrap the proposed $150 billion payroll tax cut as well, though I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m aware that it was a campaign promise. Money not squandered on ineffective tax cuts could be used to provide further relief to Americans in distress \u00e2\u20ac\u201d enhanced unemployment benefits, expanded Medicaid and more. And why not get an early start on the insurance subsidies \u00e2\u20ac\u201d probably running at $100 billion or more per year \u00e2\u20ac\u201d that will be essential if we\u00e2\u20ac\u2122re going to achieve universal health care?<\/sup><\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/tbn2.google.com\/images?q=tbn:wwpqFN7L8nWEoM:http:\/\/images.nymag.com\/images\/2\/daily\/intel\/08\/06\/27_obama_lg.jpg\" align=\"left\" border=\"1\" width=\"133\" height=\"89\" hspace=\"4\"\/>Mainly, though, Mr. Obama needs to make his plan bigger. To see why, consider a new report from his own economic team. On Saturday, Christina Romer, the future head of the Council of Economic Advisers, and Jared Bernstein, who will be the vice president\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s chief economist, released estimates of what the Obama economic plan would accomplish. Their report is reasonable and intellectually honest, which is a welcome change from the fuzzy math of the last eight years. But the report also makes it clear that the plan falls well short of what the economy needs.<\/sup><\/div>\n<p>     <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup>According to Ms. Romer and Mr. Bernstein, the Obama plan would have its maximum impact in the fourth quarter of 2010. Without the plan, they project, the unemployment rate in that quarter would be a disastrous 8.8 percent. Yet even with the plan, unemployment would be 7 percent \u00e2\u20ac\u201d roughly as high as it is now. After 2010, the report says, the effects of the economic plan would rapidly fade away. The job of promoting full recovery would, however, remain undone: the unemployment rate would still be a painful 6.3 percent in the last quarter of 2011.<\/sup><\/div>\n<p>     <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup>Now, economic forecasting is an inexact science, to say the least, and things could turn out better than the report predicts. But they could also turn out worse. The report itself acknowledges that \u00e2\u20ac\u0153some private forecasters anticipate unemployment rates as high as 11 percent in the absence of action.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d And I\u00e2\u20ac\u2122m with Lawrence Summers, another member of the Obama economic team, who recently declared, \u00e2\u20ac\u0153In this crisis, doing too little poses a greater threat than doing too much.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d Unfortunately, that principle isn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t reflected in the current plan. So how can Mr. Obama do more? By including a lot more public investment in his plan \u00e2\u20ac\u201d which will be possible if he takes a longer view.<\/sup><\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\"><sup>The Romer-Bernstein report acknowledges that \u00e2\u20ac\u0153a dollar of infrastructure spending is more effective in creating jobs than a dollar of tax cuts.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d It argues, however, that \u00e2\u20ac\u0153there is a limit on how much government investment can be carried out efficiently in a short time frame.\u00e2\u20ac\u009d But why does the time frame have to be short?<\/sup><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><sup>As far as I can tell, Mr. Obama\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s planners have focused on investment projects that will deliver their main jobs boost over the next two years. But since unemployment is likely to remain high well beyond that two-year window, the plan should also include longer-term investment projects. And bear in mind that even a project that delivers its main punch in, say, 2011 can provide significant economic support in earlier years. If Mr. Obama drops the \u00e2\u20ac\u0153jump-start\u00e2\u20ac\u009d metaphor, if he accepts the reality that we need a multi-year program rather than a short burst of activity, he can create a lot more jobs through government investment, even in the near term.<\/sup><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><sup>Still, shouldn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t Mr. Obama wait for proof that a bigger, longer-term plan is needed? No. Right now the investment portion of the Obama plan is limited by a shortage of \u00e2\u20ac\u0153shovel ready\u00e2\u20ac\u009d projects, projects ready to go on short notice. A lot more investment can be under way by late 2010 or 2011 if Mr. Obama gives the go-ahead now \u00e2\u20ac\u201d but if he waits too long before deciding, that window of opportunity will be gone. One more thing: even with the Obama plan, the Romer-Bernstein report predicts an average unemployment rate of 7.3 percent over the next three years. That\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s a scary number, big enough to pose a real risk that the U.S. economy will get stuck in a Japan-type deflationary trap.<\/sup><\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup>So my advice to the Obama team is to scrap the business tax cuts, and, more important, to deal with the threat of doing too little by doing more. And the way to do more is to stop talking about jump-starts and look more broadly at the possibilities for government investment.<\/sup><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\">I thought Krugman&#8217;s last article was a bit ascerbic, which I found mildly annoying. I think I might have been retaliating by pointing out what I think was a mistake of Krugman&#8217;s [<a href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2009\/01\/11\/clash-of-the-titans\"><b>clash of the titans\u00e2\u20ac\u00a6<\/b><\/a>]. Whatever the case, Obama responded non-defensively. So maybe that&#8217;s just how Titans talk. What bothered me was that in listing the possibilities for why Obama&#8217;s plan didn&#8217;t live up to his expectations, he gave some hypothesized reasons, but left out the benign possibility that Obama might not have known what else to do. Academics are like that &#8211; annoyed that others don&#8217;t know what they know. Whatever&#8230;<\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\">But, that aside, Krugman&#8217;s response was really good. He didn&#8217;t exactly respond to Obama&#8217;s question, but he clarified his objections. He remakes the point that tax-cuts aren&#8217;t likely to help with the financial crisis. That makes sense to me. Obama knows that &#8211; he said it on <b>This Week<\/b> yesterday [less &#8220;bang for buck&#8221;]. What he&#8217;s trying to say to Obama is that to think that all that&#8217;s needed is a &#8220;jump start&#8221; is naive. This is going to take a long time, and getting out too qiickly is no good. One place to look at why Krugman says it is the Great Depression. F.D.R. came on like a Lion in 1933. But in 1937, partly in response to criticism, he backed off and started to try to pay-back prematurely. The result was another Recession that lasted until World War II. So Krugman suggests getting out of the short-term mode and start looking for ways to supply jobs down the line. Krugman is still saying &#8220;more.&#8221; While he&#8217;s not being specific, I think what he&#8217;s saying is that he might not specifically know how to solve the practicalities either, Obama is going to have to provide more jobs for a longer time than he&#8217;s currently projecting.  It&#8217;s not Krugman&#8217;s job to know how to do it. As a macroeconomist, he&#8217;s doing us a great service if he lets us know what needs doing. Good job, Krugman!<\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\"><b><font color=\"#300030\">But the main thing I want to say is that I&#8217;m sitting up in the mountains of North Georgia in a log cabin, and I can see what Obama is thinking, and what his &#8220;team&#8221; is thinking, and what a Nobel Laureate Economist is thinking. This debate is taking place on the front page of the newspaper and on my television set. The transparency of the debate makes me cry for joy inside. We&#8217;re back in the loop of government again! Okay, it makes me cry on the outside too. It&#8217;s been such a long time&#8230;<\/font><\/b><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Man, this is better than a new video game! January 8th: Obama gave his speech on the Economy. January 9th: The next day, Nobel Laureate Economist NYT Columnist, Paul Krugman, responded with a column, The Obama Gap, which said: But Mr. Obama\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s prescription doesn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t live up to his diagnosis&#8230; Why isn\u00e2\u20ac\u2122t Mr. Obama trying to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2808","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2808","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2808"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2808\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2808"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2808"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2808"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}