{"id":3047,"date":"2009-04-17T16:27:18","date_gmt":"2009-04-17T21:27:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/?p=3047"},"modified":"2009-04-17T17:04:26","modified_gmt":"2009-04-17T22:04:26","slug":"parameters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2009\/04\/17\/parameters\/","title":{"rendered":"parameters&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<div align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"475\" border=\"0\" width=\"252\" vspace=\"7\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/dudt.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\">The upper figure is the yearly unemployment from the Great Depression. Below, I&#8217;ve extracted the yearly rate of change [this year &#8211; last year = % change\/year]. What it shows is that in 1932, Hoover&#8217;s interventions were beginning to have an impact, even before FDR&#8217;s New Deal. Also notice what happened in 1937 when FDR jettisoned the New Deal restrictions too soon. I post this [in response to a question] to explain the contemporary one below that I&#8217;ve been posting since December:<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"473\" border=\"0\" width=\"239\" vspace=\"7\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/unem309.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\">What I&#8217;m trying to follow is the same parameter in the monthly unemployment figures. That slight downturn in the rate of change is either a sign of improvement or just an insignificant fluctuation. We&#8217;ll look again on May 8th when they release the <a href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/unem309.gif\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Bureau of Labor Statistics<\/strong><\/a> figures.&nbsp; If du\/dt is falling, it will be the first indicator that the economy is stabilizing. Hold your breath&#8230;<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"338\" border=\"0\" width=\"267\" vspace=\"7\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/cpi_feb09.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\">The other big statistic to watch is the <a href=\"ftp:\/\/ftp.bls.gov\/pub\/special.requests\/cpi\/cpiai.txt\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>Consumer Price Index<\/strong><\/a>. When it&#8217;s falling, it heralds a <strong>Deflationary Spiral<\/strong> [which is terrible news].&nbsp; Last month&#8217;s value was good news. [it&#8217;s stopped falling] Here&#8217;s the graph from the Great Depression:<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"203\" border=\"0\" width=\"282\" vspace=\"7\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/cpi-20s.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\">The next CPI wiill be out on <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bls.gov\/cpi\/\" target=\"_blank\"><strong>May 15th<\/strong><\/a>&#8230;<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The upper figure is the yearly unemployment from the Great Depression. Below, I&#8217;ve extracted the yearly rate of change [this year &#8211; last year = % change\/year]. What it shows is that in 1932, Hoover&#8217;s interventions were beginning to have an impact, even before FDR&#8217;s New Deal. Also notice what happened in 1937 when FDR [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3047"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3047\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}