{"id":34164,"date":"2013-03-14T22:12:50","date_gmt":"2013-03-15T02:12:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/?p=34164"},"modified":"2013-03-15T01:06:43","modified_gmt":"2013-03-15T05:06:43","slug":"and-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2013\/03\/14\/and-14\/","title":{"rendered":"and&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p align=\"justify\">Years ago I joked, &quot;<em>What they might as well do is make a table with all the DSM diagnoses down the side and all the psychiatric meds across the top and then just fill in the blanks.<\/em>&quot; I was making fun of the endless clinical trials that were choking our journals. One of my more astute partners laughed as she said, &quot;<em>You&#8217;re sooooo far behind. They&#8217;ve already done that. Now they&#8217;re doing them two drugs at a time. Much bigger table!<\/em>&quot; But of all the combo drug strategies that came along, the one I least understood was adding atypical antipsychotics to antidepressants. That made some sense with severe cases of psychotic depression, but those are not common and most people being given the combination treatment didn&#8217;t seem to have those symptoms. What was the rationale for antipsychotics? Beats me. The drugs are anxiolytic, but there are plenty of much safer things to do to treat anxiety. So I&#8217;ve generally been suspicious that the atypical augmentation was a marketing ploy. Here, we are presented with a new meta-analysis of the studies to date that met solid study criteria. These are all industry funded studies with one being a joint industry\/NIMH study:                   <\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"center\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.plosmedicine.org\/article\/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.1001403\" target=\"_blank\">Adjunctive Atypical Antipsychotic Treatment for Major Depressive Disorder: A Meta-Analysis of Depression, Quality of Life, and Safety Outcomes<\/a><br \/>                         <strong><font color=\"#200020\">PLoS Medicine<\/font><\/strong><br \/>                             by Glen I. Spielmans,      Margit I. Berman,      Eftihia Linardatos,      Nicholas Z. Rosenlicht,      Angela Perry, and      Alexander C. Tsai.<br \/>                        March 13, 2013<br \/>                  [<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.plosmedicine.org\/article\/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pmed.1001403\">full text on-line<\/a>]<\/div>\n<p>                            <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup><strong><u><font color=\"#200020\">Background<\/font><\/u>: Atypical antipsychotic medications are widely prescribed for the adjunctive treatment of depression, yet their total risk&ndash;benefit profile is not well understood. We thus conducted a systematic review of the efficacy and safety profiles of atypical antipsychotic medications used for the adjunctive treatment of depression.<\/strong><\/sup><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup><strong><u><font color=\"#200020\">Methods and Findings<\/font><\/u>: We included randomized trials comparing adjunctive antipsychotic medication to placebo for treatment-resistant depression in adults. Our literature search [conducted in December 2011 and updated on December 14, 2012] identified 14 short-term trials of aripiprazole, olanzapine\/fluoxetine combination [OFC], quetiapine, and risperidone. When possible, we supplemented published literature with data from manufacturers&#8217; clinical trial registries and US Food and Drug Administration New Drug Applications. Study duration ranged from 4 to 12 wk. All four drugs had statistically significant effects on remission, as follows: aripiprazole [OR], 2.01; 95% CI, 1.48&ndash;2.73], OFC [OR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.01&ndash;2.0], quetiapine [OR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.33&ndash;2.42], and risperidone [OR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.31&ndash;4.30].<\/strong><\/sup><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup><strong>The number needed to treat [NNT] was 19 for OFC and nine for each other drug. All drugs with the exception of OFC also had statistically significant effects on response rates, as follows: aripiprazole [OR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.58&ndash;2.72; NNT, 7], OFC [OR, 1.30, 95% CI, 0.87&ndash;1.93], quetiapine [OR, 1.53, 95% CI, 1.17&ndash;2.0; NNT, 10], and risperidone [OR, 1.83, 95% CI, 1.16&ndash;2.88; NNT, 8]. All four drugs showed statistically significant effects on clinician-rated depression severity measures [Hedges&#8217; g ranged from 0.26 to 0.48; mean difference of 2.69 points on the Montgomery&ndash;Asberg Depression Rating Scale across drugs]. On measures of functioning and quality of life, these medications produced either no benefit or a very small benefit, except for risperidone, which had a small-to-moderate effect on quality of life [g = 0.49].<\/strong><\/sup><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup><strong>Treatment was linked to several adverse events, including akathisia [aripiprazole], sedation [quetiapine, OFC, and aripiprazole], abnormal metabolic laboratory results [quetiapine and OFC], and weight gain [all four drugs, especially OFC]. Shortcomings in study design and data reporting, as well as use of post hoc analyses, may have inflated the apparent benefits of treatment and reduced the apparent incidence of adverse events.<\/strong><\/sup><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup><strong><u><font color=\"#200020\">Conclusions<\/font><\/u>: Atypical antipsychotic medications for the adjunctive treatment of depression are efficacious in reducing observer-rated depressive symptoms, but clinicians should interpret these findings cautiously in light of [1] the small-to-moderate-sized benefits, [2] the lack of benefit with regards to quality of life or functional impairment, and [3] the abundant evidence of potential treatment-related harm.<\/strong><\/sup><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\">I will quickly admit that the ins and outs of meta-analyses are new to me, but they&#8217;ve become something of major importance especially in psychiatry where there has been so much outside interference, conflict of interest, and scientific misbehavior in our literature [also so many clinical trials]. The point of a meta-analysis is to look at all the studies and separate the &#8216;wheat from the chaff&#8217; &#8211; to come up with something that can be believed. I think this is a good one, so at the risk of living up to my moniker [one boring old man], I&#8217;m going to assume that the reader is as meta-analysis-naive as I was and go through this one in a bit of detail &#8211; at least the efficacy part [I do have something in mind to say besides writing a meta-analysis primer, but it&#8217;s at the end].            <\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\">The whole point of a randomized placebo controlled clinical trial is to see if a medication has the desired clinical effect compared to placebo on some predefined outcome, with three usual measures of success: <em>statistics<\/em>, <em>strength of effect<\/em>, and <em>overall improvement<\/em>. The outcomes for the first two focus on some objective parameter [ie rating scale] and measure the percent achieving <em>response<\/em> or <em>remission<\/em>, or they measure the <em>magnitude of difference<\/em> in the actual outcome scores. The strength of the drug&#8217;s effect on the non-parametric [yes-no] parameters of <em>response<\/em> or <em>remission <\/em>are quantified by the <em>Odds Ratio<\/em> [OR] or the <em>Number Needed to Treat<\/em> [NNT]. The strength of the parametric [continuous scale] <em>magnitude of difference<\/em> is measured by the <em>effect size<\/em>. If you already know this stuff, this paragraph is boring and simplified. If you don&#8217;t know it, it may still be Greek, but I maybe it will help below.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Statistical<\/font><\/strong><\/u>: Statistical significance is all you need to know if the outcome to not significance. In that case, anything you see in the numbers is just number noise to be ignored. In a clinical trial, if a difference is statistically significant, all you know is to look further. The differences observed may be meaningful or trivial, but the p value [probability] doesn&#8217;t discriminate the two. Something can be <u>very<\/u> significant but clinically irrelevant. <\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Strength of Effect<\/font><\/strong><\/u>: In these studies, the investigator defines the change in the outcome measure that will define <em>response<\/em> and <em>remission<\/em> in advance. There are two ways to express the results &#8211; Odds Ratio and Number Needed to Treat, both calculated from the same things &#8211; the percentages of <em>response<\/em> or <em>remission<\/em> compared between placebo and drug. So if 5% respond to placebo and 25% respond to the drug, the Odds Ratio and Number Needed to Treat are:<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"387\" height=\"88\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/or-nnt.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\">Obviously, the higher the OR, the better the response, and the lower the NNT the better the response. The NNT is the easiest to say in plain language: You need to treat 5 patients to get one subject who does better on the drug than placebo. The Effect Size is a bit more complicated and requires more information:<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"277\" height=\"47\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/es.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\">The Effect Size varies with the differences in the means and the measurement of variability [overall variance in the sample]. Obviously, the most accurate computation comes from having the raw&nbsp; data in hand, but there are any number of other ways and formulas to calculate it indirectly, depending on what information you can get. Here&#8217;s what the authors said about their computations:<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup><strong>For continuous outcomes, effect sizes were computed from means and  standard deviations when possible. When these were not provided, effect  sizes were computed based on means and <em>p<\/em>-values, or <em>p<\/em>-values only.<\/strong><\/sup><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\">&#8230; meaning that they did the best they could with what they had to work with.            <\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\"> In this meta-analysis, the focus was on four atypical antipsychotics and their efficacy as adjuncts in depressed patients who had not responded to antidepressants [treatment-resistant depression]. Here&#8217;s a greatly truncated version of the forest plots of the Odds Ratios for <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.plosmedicine.org\/article\/info:doi\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001403.g003\/largerimage\">Response<\/a> and <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.plosmedicine.org\/article\/info:doi\/10.1371\/journal.pmed.1001403.g002\/largerimage\">Remission<\/a>  with the four drugs Aripiprazole [Abilify], Olanzapine\/Fluoxetine Combo  [Zyprexa + Prozac], Quetiapine [Seroquel], and Risperidone [Risperdal] just to show the variability within and among the studies:<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"470\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/spielmans-1.gif\" \/><br \/>                 <sup><strong>[Odds Ratios with 95% Confidence Intervals]<\/strong><\/sup><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Now here are the <strong><font color=\"#200020\">OR<\/font><\/strong>, <strong><font color=\"#200020\">NNT<\/font><\/strong>, and <strong><font color=\"#200020\">Effect Size<\/font><\/strong> composite results [shown without confidence limits]:<\/p>\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/spielmans-3.gif\" \/><\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\">So what do the numbers mean? There&#8217;s the rub. What&#8217;s a good <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Odds_ratio\">Odds Ratio<\/a>? a strong <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Number_needed_to_treat\">NNT<\/a>? a robust <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Effect_size\">Effect Size<\/a>? Click on the links to discover that even Wikipedia won&#8217;t directly answer the question. But there are a couple of other things to mention before returning to interpretation.<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Overall Improvement<\/font><\/strong><\/u>: The Strength of Effect measures are based on rating scales with specific items related to depression scored by external raters [HAM-D, MADRS, etc]. There are other self rating scales. Here&#8217;s what the authors said:<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup><strong>Continuous measures of quality of life included the Quality of Life Enjoyment and Satisfaction Questionnaire [Q-LES-Q] and the Short Form 36 Health Survey [SF-36]. The only continuous measure of functional impairment employed in these trials was the Sheehan Disability Scale [SDS].  As measures of quality of life and functional impairment varied across  studies, we pooled such measures together to create an omnibus effect  size for each drug, and across all drugs.<\/strong><\/sup><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\">The results were:<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" vspace=\"5\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/spielmans-4.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\">but they hastened to add:<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\"><sup><strong>With regards to quality of life and functioning, adjunctive quetiapine, aripiprazole, and OFC produced effect sizes that were either not statistically significant or small and clinically negligible in magnitude. Adjunctive risperidone was more efficacious than adjunctive placebo on quality of life\/functioning, with a small-to-moderate effect size. The pooled effect across quality of life\/functioning measures varied significantly across treatments [QB = 6.88, p = 0.003], with risperidone [g = 0.49] yielding a higher effect than the other three drugs combined [g = 0.11], which did not differ significantly from each other [QB = 4.02, p = 0.13]. However, the effect of aripiprazole on quality of life\/functioning was small [g = 0.22] and statistically significant [p = 0.001], whereas the effects of OFC [g = 0.04, p = 0.74], and quetiapine [g = 0.05, p = 0.53] were both not statistically significant and of quite small magnitude. The effect of aripiprazole on quality of life\/functioning should be interpreted with caution, as the effect for the drug on the SDS was very small and no longer statistically significant when patients who violated study protocol were excluded from analysis [g = 0.12, p = 0.08]. Similarly, the effect of risperidone on quality of life\/functioning should be interpreted tentatively since it is largely driven by post hoc analyses.<\/strong><\/sup><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\">These authors concluded that from the subjects point of view, their lives weren&#8217;t particularly improved by atypical antipschotic augmentation [which, by the way, is the point of treatment in the first place].<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div align=\"justify\">They did something else that&#8217;s an addition to meta-analysis that I didn&#8217;t know about and couldn&#8217;t tell you how to do, but there&#8217;s a nice explanation in Ben Goldacre&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.ted.com\/talks\/ben_goldacre_battling_bad_science.html\" target=\"_blank\">TED Talk<\/a> [at 10:22]. They looked for publication bias using the &quot;trim and fill&quot; method and a funnel plot. They concluded that there were some missing studies, three to be exact. This is a major problem in meta-analyses. Having only what&#8217;s been published when the negative studies are in a file drawer is like a batting average based only on the good days. Here&#8217;s the funnel plot with the imputed missing studies in black:<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"400\" height=\"290\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/spielmans-2.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\">So what about all of this. My read is Zyprexa+Prozac? A total bust. The others? This is statistical but only slight clinical significance, particularly when you look at the side effect burden. You have to treat around nine patients before you get one that beats a placebo, and on the self rating scales the patients couldn&#8217;t really tell you that they noticed. There&#8217;s nothing to write home about here. <\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/spielmans-5.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\">The reason I went through parsing this article and dumbing it down was to make a simple point. This is a thorough meta-analysis that represents untold hours of work on the part of the authors. They had to wrench their numbers out of these articles using indirect and ponderous conversion formulas and doing some reading between the lines. In fact, there&#8217;s a new generation of scientists going over our medical literature using some pretty fancy detection methods, like the funnel plots to detect hidden studies. I guess they&#8217;re our CSI [crime scene investigation] types. But the problem is that they can&#8217;t investigate until they&#8217;re already working on &quot;cold cases.&quot; I&#8217;m not complaining, they&#8217;re a great addition. But that graph up there is the years these studies were published, and the patent life of the drugs in question is behind us. The profits are in the bank or long ago distributed to CEOs and Stockholders. Augmenting antidepressant failures with atypical antipsychotics was a multi-billion dollar business. It&#8217;s still going on:<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"520\" vspace=\"7\" height=\"90\" border=\"1\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/seroquelxr.jpg\" \/><\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\">So I&#8217;m glad we have this meta-analysis and I appreciate all the work that went into it &#8211; but&#8230; <\/div>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<div align=\"justify\">if we had the raw data as these studies were published, they could&#8217;ve been checked&nbsp; in a timely fashion. <\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div align=\"justify\">and if we had the raw data as the studies were published, this meta-analysis could&#8217;ve been done without all the detective work it took to excavate the facts. <\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div align=\"justify\">and if we&#8217;d had the raw data when it should&#8217;ve been available, a huge cohort of people wouldn&#8217;t have taken unnecessary and expensive medications that made some of them sick and didn&#8217;t help very many.<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div align=\"justify\">and if we&#8217;d had the raw data up front, the drug companies and the KOLs wouldn&#8217;t have made so much ill-gotten profit and there would be fewer Mercedes in the parking lots. <\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div align=\"justify\">and if we had the raw data from the start, the medical literature could&#8217;ve stayed scientific like it was&nbsp; supposed to be.<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<div align=\"justify\">and&#8230;<\/div>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Years ago I joked, &quot;What they might as well do is make a table with all the DSM diagnoses down the side and all the psychiatric meds across the top and then just fill in the blanks.&quot; I was making fun of the endless clinical trials that were choking our journals. One of my more [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34164","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34164","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=34164"}],"version-history":[{"count":47,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34164\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":34237,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/34164\/revisions\/34237"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=34164"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=34164"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=34164"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}