{"id":42584,"date":"2013-12-27T07:32:16","date_gmt":"2013-12-27T12:32:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/?p=42584"},"modified":"2013-12-27T07:59:40","modified_gmt":"2013-12-27T12:59:40","slug":"non-randommissingness","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2013\/12\/27\/non-randommissingness\/","title":{"rendered":"non&middot;random missing&middot;ness&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<div align=\"justify\">In the last post [<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2013\/12\/26\/almost-inevitable\/\">almost inevitable&hellip;<\/a>] proposing that the CAFE study was cloned from the CATIE study without considering the different populations being studied, I mentioned the many similarities between them. Well here&#8217;s another similarity: <\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"42\" width=\"481\" vspace=\"7\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/no-results.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<div>In spite of their age, neither study had results posted on clinicaltrials.gov&#8230;    <\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"big\"><a href=\"http:\/\/content.healthaffairs.org\/content\/30\/12\/2338.abstract\" target=\"_blank\">Despite Law, Fewer Than One In Eight Completed Studies Of Drugs And Biologics Are Reported On Time On ClinicalTrials.gov<\/a><\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"big\"><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Health Affairs<\/font><\/strong><\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"middle\">by Michael R. Law, Yuko Kawasumi and Steven G. Morgan<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"small\">December 2011<\/div>\n<p>       <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\">Clinical trial registries are public   databases created to prospectively document the methods and measures of   prescription                      drug studies and retrospectively  collect a summary  of results. In 2007 the US government began requiring  that researchers                      register certain studies and  report the results on  ClinicalTrials.gov, a public database of  federally and privately  supported                      trials conducted  in the United States and abroad.  We found that although the mandate  briefly increased trial  registrations,                      39&nbsp;percent  of trials were still registered late  after the mandate&rsquo;s deadline, and <strong><font color=\"#200020\"> only 12&nbsp;percent of completed studies  reported                       results within a year, as required by the mandate<\/font><\/strong>.  This result is  important because there is evidence of selective  reporting                       even among registered trials. Furthermore, we found  that  trials funded by industry were more than three times as likely to                       report results than were trials funded by the  National  Institutes of Health. Thus, additional enforcement may be  required                       to ensure disclosure of all trial results, leading  to a  better understanding of drug safety and efficacy. Congress should                       also reconsider the three-year delay in reporting   results for products that have been approved by the Food and Drug   Administration                      and are in use by patients.<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"big\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/bmjopen.bmj.com\/content\/2\/4\/e001186.full\">How often do US-based human subjects research studies register on time, and how often do they post their results? A statistical                               analysis of the Clinicaltrials.gov database<\/a><\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"small\">by Christopher J Gill<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"middle\"><strong><font color=\"#003399\">British Medical Journal &#8211; Open<\/font><\/strong>. 2012 2:001186.<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"middle\">[<a href=\"http:\/\/bmjopen.bmj.com\/content\/2\/4\/e001186.full\" target=\"_blank\">full text on-line<\/a>]      <\/div>\n<p>     <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Context<\/font><\/strong><\/u>:  The Food and Drug Administration Modernization Act of 1997 [FDAMA] and  the FDA Amendment Act of 2007 [FDAAA], respectively,                                     established mandates for  registration of interventional human research studies on the website  clinicaltrials.gov [CTG] and                                     for posting of results of completed  studies.                                  <\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Objective<\/font><\/strong><\/u>: To characterise, contrast and explain rates of compliance with ontime registration of new studies and posting of results                                     for completed studies on CTG.                                  <\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Design<\/font><\/strong><\/u>: Statistical analysis of publically available data downloaded from the CTG website.                                  <\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Participants<\/font><\/strong><\/u>: US studies registered on CTG since 1 November 1999, the date when the CTG website became operational, through 24 June 2011,                                     the date the data set was downloaded for analysis. <\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Main outcome measures<\/font><\/strong><\/u>: Ontime registration [within 21 days of study start]; average delay from study start to registration; proportion of studies                                     posting their results from within the group of studies listed as completed on CTG.                                  <\/div>\n<p> <u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Results<\/font><\/strong><\/u>: As  of 24 June 2011, CTG contained 54,890 studies registered in the USA.  Prior to 2005, an estimated 80% of US studies were                                     not being registered. Among  registered studies, only 55.7% registered within the 21-day reporting  window. The average delay                                     on CTG was 322 days. Between 28  September 2007 and June 23 2010, 28% of intervention studies at Phase II  or beyond posted                                     their study results on CTG, compared  with 8.4% for studies without industry funding [RR 4.2, 95% CI 3.7 to  4.8]. Factors associated                                     with posting of results included  exclusively paediatric studies [adjusted OR [AOR] 2.9, 95% CI 2.1 to  4.0], and later phase                                     clinical trials [relative to Phase  II studies, AOR for Phase III was 3.4, 95% CI 2.8 to 4.1; AOR for Phase  IV was 6.0, 95%                                     CI 4.8 to 7.6]. <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Conclusions<\/font><\/strong><\/u>: Non-compliance with FDAMA and FDAAA appears to be very common, although compliance is higher for studies sponsored by industry.                                     Further oversight may be required to improve compliance.<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"479\" width=\"364\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/ctg.gif\" \/>     <\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"big\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.bmj.com\/content\/347\/bmj.f6104\">Non-publication of large randomized clinical trials: cross sectional analysis <\/a><\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"small\">by Christopher W Jones, Lara Handler, Karen E Crowell, Lukas G Keil, Mark A Weaver, and Timothy F Platts-Mills<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"middle\"><strong><font color=\"#003399\">British Medical Journal<\/font><\/strong>. 2013 347:f6104.<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"middle\"> [<a href=\"http:\/\/www.bmj.com\/content\/347\/bmj.f6104\" target=\"_blank\">full text on-line<\/a>]<\/div>\n<p>       <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Objective<\/font><\/strong><\/u> To estimate the frequency with which results of large randomized clinical trials registered with <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/ClinicalTrials.gov\">ClinicalTrials.gov<\/a> are not available to the public.<\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Setting<\/font><\/strong><\/u>   Trials with at least 500 participants that were prospectively   registered with ClinicalTrials.gov and completed prior to January 2009.<\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Data sources<\/font><\/strong><\/u>   PubMed, Google Scholar, and Embase were searched to identify published   manuscripts containing trial results. The final literature search   occurred in November 2012. Registry entries for unpublished trials were   reviewed to determine whether results for these studies were available   in the ClinicalTrials.gov results database.<\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Main outcome measures<\/font><\/strong><\/u>   The frequency of non-publication of trial results and, among   unpublished studies, the frequency with which results are unavailable in   the ClinicalTrials.gov database.<\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Results<\/font><\/strong><\/u>  Of 585 registered trials, 171 [29%] remained unpublished.  These 171  unpublished trials had an estimated total enrollment of  299&thinsp;763 study  participants. The median time between study completion  and the final  literature search was 60 months for unpublished trials.  Non-publication  was more common among trials that received industry  funding [150\/468,  32%] than those that did not [21\/117, 18%], P=0.003. Of the 171  unpublished trials, 133 [78%] had no results available in  ClinicalTrials.gov.<\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Conclusions<\/font><\/strong><\/u>  Among  this group of large clinical drug trials, non-publication of  results was  common and the availability of results in the  ClinicalTrials.gov  database was limited. A substantial number of study  participants were  exposed to the risks of trial participation without  the societal  benefits that accompany the dissemination of trial  results.<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" height=\"245\" width=\"396\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/trials-pub-1.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\">The Principle Investigator on both of these studies [CATIE and CAFE] is Jeffrey Lieberman, Chairman of Psychiatry at Columbia and current President of the APA. He&#8217;s got these two Clinical Trials published in high impact journals, but he hasn&#8217;t bothered to report the results in clinicaltrials.gov. I suppose he has an excuse in that the absolute requirement for <a href=\"http:\/\/www.nlm.nih.gov\/pubs\/factsheets\/clintrial.html\" target=\"_blank\">publication of results<\/a> didn&#8217;t become law until 2007, so he didn&#8217;t have to publish them even though it was recommended. But if he wanted to do something for the image of psychiatry [something he says repeatedly is important to him], he could get those results posted. The absolute requirement for publishing results is now 6 years old as law, yet I don&#8217;t know of an example where it has yet been enforced, and the studies up top make it clear how negligent the investigators have been. As I pointed out earlier [<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2013\/10\/31\/also-stupid\/\">also stupid&hellip;<\/a>], maybe PHARMA wouldn&#8217;t be in such hot water with Data Transparency if they had followed the mandates of that 2007 law.<\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\">A year or so ago, I reviewed the results database on clinicaltrials.gov [starts with <a href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2012\/09\/12\/eyes-wide-shut-open-i\/\" target=\"_blank\">eyes wide <strike>shut<\/strike> open I&hellip;<\/a>]. It&#8217;s kind of thin &#8211; more summary than raw data. But still, it would&#8217;ve been helpful. It would&#8217;ve given us the outcome of all those unpublished studies like Seroquel Study 15 [<a href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2012\/02\/25\/15-years-of-study-15-and-counting\/\" target=\"_blank\">15 years of study 15 [and counting]&hellip;<\/a>], the two negative trials of paroxetine in adolescents that weren&#8217;t published until the patent expired [<a href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2013\/10\/29\/an-addendum\/\" target=\"_blank\">an addendum&hellip;<\/a>], or the missing Zoloft studies [<a title=\"Permanent Link to zoloft: the approval I\u2026\" href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/17\/zoloft-the-approval-i\/\">zoloft: the approval I&hellip;<\/a> etc.]. I doubt it would help us vet studies like Paxil Study 329. For that one, you&#8217;d need the raw data to confirm suspicions. But that&#8217;s all speculation as the listed articles above show. The requirements for results publication on clinicaltrials.gov have been essentially ignored [without consequence].<\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\">Their track record on clinicaltrials.gov comes to mind whenever I hear the PHARMA people trying to negotiate their way into holding on to control of data access in the face of AllTrials, making promises of various kinds. They haven&#8217;t even complied with the law of the land. The only real recourse is obligatory raw data transparency as a requirement for FDA submissions and for publication in peer reviewed journals. Anything less than that will surely follow the path of the clinicaltrials.gov results database &#8211; non&middot;random missing&middot;ness&#8230;<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In the last post [almost inevitable&hellip;] proposing that the CAFE study was cloned from the CATIE study without considering the different populations being studied, I mentioned the many similarities between them. Well here&#8217;s another similarity: In spite of their age, neither study had results posted on clinicaltrials.gov&#8230; Despite Law, Fewer Than One In Eight Completed [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42584","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42584","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=42584"}],"version-history":[{"count":15,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42584\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":42599,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/42584\/revisions\/42599"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=42584"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=42584"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=42584"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}