{"id":4593,"date":"2011-01-03T19:34:48","date_gmt":"2011-01-04T00:34:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/?p=4593"},"modified":"2011-01-04T21:59:52","modified_gmt":"2011-01-05T02:59:52","slug":"theres-something-bad-wrong-about-this","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2011\/01\/03\/theres-something-bad-wrong-about-this\/","title":{"rendered":"there’s something wrong about this…"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n
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January 1, 2011
The Long Road Ahead<\/strong><\/a><\/div>\n

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The figure above illustrates Okun’s Law — the relationship between growth and unemployment… The horizontal axis shows annual growth rates of real GDP; the vertical axis shows the year-to-year change in the unemployment rate. Two things are clear. First, the economy has to grow around 2 1\/2 percent per year just to keep unemployment from rising. Second, growth above that level leads to a less than one-for-one fall in unemployment (because hours per worker rise, more people enter the work force, etc.). Roughly, it takes two point-years of extra growth to reduce the unemployment rate by one point.<\/p>\n

So, suppose that US growth is accelerating. Even so, it will take years of high growth to get us back to anything resembling full employment. Put it this way: suppose that from here on out we average 4.5 percent growth, which is way above any forecast I’ve seen. Even at that rate, unemployment would be close to 8 percent at the end of 2012, and wouldn’t get below 6 percent until midway through Sarah Palin’s first term.<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n
I’d love to bet against Krugman’s computer, but so far I’m batting 0.000 doing that… <\/div>\n
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Next Release: January 7, 2011<\/font><\/strong><\/a> The Employment Situation for December 2010 is scheduled to be released on January 7, 2011, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

January 1, 2011 The Long Road Ahead The figure above illustrates Okun’s Law — the relationship between growth and unemployment… The horizontal axis shows annual growth rates of real GDP; the vertical axis shows the year-to-year change in the unemployment rate. Two things are clear. First, the economy has to grow around 2 1\/2 percent […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4593","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4593"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4593\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4593"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4593"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4593"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}