{"id":50826,"date":"2014-10-17T10:28:40","date_gmt":"2014-10-17T14:28:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/?p=50826"},"modified":"2014-10-18T05:48:19","modified_gmt":"2014-10-18T09:48:19","slug":"more-wagner-et-al","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/17\/more-wagner-et-al\/","title":{"rendered":"more <em>Wagner et al<\/em>&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">I know I sometimes get kind of hung up on numbers, and it just happened. I was looking at Wagner et al in the last post because it was ghost-written, but I did read the abstract and something stuck with me. It&#8217;s highlighted in red below, &quot;<strong><font color=\"#990000\">[effect size=2.9]<\/font><\/strong>&quot;. The effect size is a measure of the strength of an effect and is the simplest of calculations: it&#8217;s the difference in the means of the two groups divided by the standard deviation. <img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" align=\"right\" width=\"120\" hspace=\"4\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/curious-1.gif\" \/>Besides being an index of the strength of an effect, it also normalizes things so different studies can be compared. The usual range is <strong><font color=\"#200020\">0.25 = weak<\/font><\/strong>, <strong><font color=\"#200020\">0.50 = moderate<\/font><\/strong>, and <strong><font color=\"#200020\">0.75 = strong<\/font><\/strong>. So what&#8217;s with <strong><font color=\"#990000\">effect size=2.9<\/font><\/strong>? It doesn&#8217;t make any sense. So I went back and pulled the whole paper to calculate it myself. Curious George, I guess&#8230;<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"big\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pubmed\/15169696\">A randomized, placebo-controlled trial of citalopram for the treatment of major depression in children and adolescents.<\/a><\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"small\">by Wagner KD, Robb AS, Findling RL, Jin J, Gutierrez MM, Heydorn WE.<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"middle\"><strong><font color=\"#004400\">American Journal of Psychiatry<\/font><\/strong>. 2004 161[6]:1079-1083.<\/div>\n<p>               <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">OBJECTIVE:<\/font><\/strong><\/u> Open-label  trials with the selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor citalopram  suggest that this agent is effective and safe for the treatment of  depressive symptoms in children and adolescents. The current study  investigated the efficacy and safety of citalopram compared with placebo  in the treatment of pediatric patients with major depression.<\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">METHOD:<\/font><\/strong><\/u> An  8-week, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study compared the  safety and efficacy of citalopram with placebo in the treatment of  children [ages 7-11] and adolescents [ages 12-17] with major depressive  disorder. Diagnosis was established with the Schedule for Affective  Disorders and Schizophrenia for School-Age Children-Present and Lifetime  Version. Patients [N=174] were treated initially with placebo or 20  mg\/day of citalopram, with an option to increase the dose to 40 mg\/day  at week 4 if clinically indicated. The primary outcome measure was score  on the Children&#8217;s Depression Rating Scale-Revised; the response  criterion was defined as a score of <u>&lt;<\/u> 28.<\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">RESULTS:<\/font><\/strong><\/u> The  overall mean citalopram dose was approximately 24 mg\/day. Mean  Children&#8217;s Depression Rating Scale-Revised scores decreased  significantly more from baseline in the citalopram treatment group than  in the placebo treatment group, beginning at week 1 and continuing at  every observation point to the end of the study <strong><font color=\"#990000\">[effect size=2.9]<\/font><\/strong>. The  difference in response rate at week 8 between placebo [24%] and  citalopram [36%] also was statistically significant. Citalopram  treatment was well tolerated. Rates of discontinuation due to adverse  events were comparable in the placebo and citalopram groups [5.9% versus  5.6%, respectively]. Rhinitis, nausea, and abdominal pain were the only  adverse events to occur with a frequency exceeding 10% in either  treatment group.<\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">CONCLUSIONS:<\/font><\/strong><\/u> In this population of  children and adolescents, treatment with citalopram reduced depressive  symptoms to a significantly greater extent than placebo treatment and  was well tolerated.<\/div>\n<p>               <\/p>\n<div align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" width=\"250\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/wagner-3.gif\" \/><\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">Well, they give us the mean CDRS-R scores at the baseline and the standard deviations&#8230;<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\">&#8230; Mean Children&#8217;s Depression Rating Scale Revised scores at baseline were 58.8 [SD=10.9] and 57.8 [SD=11.1] in the citalopram and placebo groups, respectively, indicative of moderately severe illness.<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">And they show us that there&#8217;s about a 5 point difference at week 8 on the graph, but they didn&#8217;t give us either the Means or the Standard Deviations at week 8 anywhere that I could find. Since the Formula is <strong><font color=\"#200020\">Effect Size<\/font><\/strong> <strong><font color=\"#200020\">=<\/font><\/strong> [<strong><font color=\"#200020\">Difference in the Means<\/font><\/strong>] <strong><font color=\"#200020\">&divide;<\/font><\/strong> [<strong><font color=\"#200020\">Standard Deviation<\/font><\/strong>], we could work backwards as in <strong><font color=\"#200020\">2.9<\/font><\/strong> <strong><font color=\"#200020\">=<\/font><\/strong> <strong><font color=\"#200020\">5<\/font><\/strong> <strong><font color=\"#200020\">&divide;<\/font><\/strong> [<strong><font color=\"#200020\">Standard Deviation<\/font><\/strong>] which comes out with a <strong><font color=\"#200020\">Standard Deviation<\/font><\/strong> <strong><font color=\"#200020\">=<\/font><\/strong> <strong><font color=\"#200020\">1.72<\/font><\/strong>. Given they started with a <strong><font color=\"#200020\">Standard Deviation<\/font><\/strong> <strong><font color=\"#200020\">=<\/font><\/strong> <strong><font color=\"#200020\">~11<\/font><\/strong>, <strong><font color=\"#200020\">1.72<\/font><\/strong> has to be wrong. As I scratched my head in confusion and pondered, I noticed these references below the abstract on PubMed:   <\/div>\n<ul><span class=\"small\">          <\/p>\n<li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pubmed\/15800174\">Child psychopharmacology, effect sizes, and the big bang.<\/a><span class=\"source\"> [Am J Psychiatry.  2005]<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pubmed\/15800175\">Child psychopharmacology, effect sizes, and the big bang.<\/a><span class=\"source\"> [Am J Psychiatry.  2005]<\/span><\/li>\n<li><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pubmed\/15800177\">Child psychopharmacology, effect sizes, and the big bang.<\/a><span class=\"source\"> [Am J Psychiatry.  2005]<\/span><\/li>\n<p>          <\/span><\/ul>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">These were comments on the article in the AJP. I wasn&#8217;t the first to wonder about that effect size. Commenter Andres Martin had named it <em>the big bang<\/em> [a bit of AJP humor]. In their response to comments, Wagner et al said:<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\">Dr. Martin and colleagues inquire about the value of 2.9, which was  calculated as the quotient of the least square mean, divided by the  common standard error of the mean for each treatment group. With Cohen&rsquo;s  method, the effect size was 0.32.<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">I have no clue where that first part came from, but the <strong><font color=\"#990000\">effect size=0.32 <\/font><\/strong>is more like it &#8211; in the weak-to-moderate range. But then there were those other numbers:<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\">&#8230; Citalopram treatment showed statistically significant improvement compared with placebo on the Children&#8217;s Depression Rating Scale &mdash; Revised as early as week 1 [F=6.58, df=l,150, p&lt;0.05], which persisted throughout the study. At week 8, the effect size on the primary outcome measure, Children&#8217;s Depression Rating Scale-Revised [last observation carried forward], was 2.9. Additionally, at endpoint more citalopram-treated patients [36%] met the prospectively defined criterion for response than did placebo-treated patients [24%], a difference that was statistically significant [x&sup2;=4.178, df=l, p&lt;0.05]. The proportion of patients with a CGI improvement rating <u>&lt;<\/u>2 at week 8 was 47% for the citalopram group and 45% for the placebo group [last observation carried forward values]. For the CGI severity rating, baseline values were 4.4 for the citalopram group and 4.3 for the placebo group, and endpoint values [last observation carried forward] were 3.1 for the citalopram group and 3.3 for the placebo group.<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">They report 36% responders to Citalopram as opposed to 24% to Placebo. The NNT [Number needed to Treat] would be <strong><font color=\"#200020\">1 &divide; [0.36 &#8211; 0.24]<\/font><\/strong> or <strong><font color=\"#200020\">NNT = 8.3<\/font><\/strong>. In prose, that translates to, &quot;<em><font color=\"#200020\">You have to treat 8 people with Citalopram before you get one that does better than they would&#8217;ve done on a Placebo<\/font><\/em>&quot; &#8211; which is lousy. And for the chi square, I got [<font color=\"#200020\">x&sup2;=2.852, df=l, p=0.0912<\/font>] with the Yates correction and [<font color=\"#200020\">x&sup2;=3.439, df=l, p&lt;0.0637<\/font>] uncorrected. But there was also the CGI [<span class=\"st\">Clinical Global Impressions<\/span>] result which is the <font color=\"#0000cc\">observation<\/font> of improvement: Placebo 45%, Citalopram 47%. And the severity: Placebo 4.3, Citalopram 4.4 before, and Placebo 3.3, Citalopram 3.1 at 8 weeks. That&#8217;s no difference at all. So the subjects showed <font color=\"#0000cc\">no overall observed<\/font> improvement with Citalopram. My Conclusion: A weak at best and clinically insignificant signal. In their response to criticisms, Wagner et al said:<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\">We believe that the results of our study, which demonstrated a  significant difference between citalopram and placebo beginning at week  1, is clinically meaningful, particularly at a time when there have been  so few antidepressants shown to have superiority to placebo for  depressed children.<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">That final comment is pretty bizarre, given that by the time it was written, Dr. Wagner herself had <em>authored<\/em> three previous articles claiming the effectiveness of SSRIs in youth [<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/16\/collusion-with-fiction\/\">collusion with fiction&hellip;<\/a>].<\/p>\n<table cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" border=\"0\" width=\"100%\">\n<tr>\n<td align=\"justify\" class=\"small\"><em>I finally located this study [<a href=\"http:\/\/www.accessdata.fda.gov\/drugsatfda_docs\/nda\/2009\/021323Orig1S030_s031.pdf#page=39\" target=\"_blank\">CIT-MD-18<\/a>] under Lexapro in Drugs@FDA. The answer to Psycritic&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2014\/10\/15\/a-betrayal\/#comment-260142\" target=\"_blank\">original point<\/a> is pretty complicated. They allowed this study [Wagner et al] to count in the Lexapro application for the pediatric MDD Approval because it is a racemic mixture. Wagner et al and one Lexapro trial were used for approval in adolescents, but it was only Lexapro that was approved. The NDA found the CDRS-R difference significant [p=0.038] but not the CGI [no mention of &#8216;responders&#8217;]. The bottom line is that this [shaky] clinical trial was essential to the pediatric approval.<\/em><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">How was that for a wild goose chase? Actually, I kind of enjoyed it. I had originally just looked at the graph in Wagner et all and assumed it was a positive study. Coming back to it after seeing that <strong><font color=\"#990000\">[effect size=2.9]<\/font><\/strong> value and realizing how shaky it really was was a good reminder that with these clinical trials, &quot;<em>all that glitters is not gold<\/em>.&quot; It was only a positive study by the letter of the law, not by <font color=\"#0000cc\">direct observation<\/font> [CGI]. <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">This actually mirrors my own experience. When I first started volunteering after retirement, I worked in a Child and Adolescent clinic for a while. I tried SSRIs in a few depressed adolescents [actually Celexa&reg;] without any luck. Then I had a case of Akathisia [unknown to me at the time], and that was the end of that little experiment. Actually, it was that case that got me looking at the psychopharmacology literature and ultimately lead to this blog. I looked at it initially to &quot;catch up,&quot; but ended up &quot;catching on.&quot; I did use SSRIs in a few adolescents with OCD-like symptoms [compulsive &quot;cutting&quot;] with notable success &#8211; though after the Akathisia case, I saw them frequently [and worried]. I actually stopped working in that clinic because I was being pressured to prescribe more. In those several years, I never saw a depressed adolescent who was just &quot;depressed.&quot; They were all cases with complex family and interpersonal issues &#8211; way more<font color=\"#200020\"> <em><strong>psycho&middot;social<\/strong><\/em><\/font> than <em><strong><font color=\"#200020\">bio<\/font><\/strong><\/em><font color=\"#200020\"><em><strong>&middot;<\/strong><\/em><\/font>&#8230;<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I know I sometimes get kind of hung up on numbers, and it just happened. I was looking at Wagner et al in the last post because it was ghost-written, but I did read the abstract and something stuck with me. It&#8217;s highlighted in red below, &quot;[effect size=2.9]&quot;. The effect size is a measure of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opinion"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50826","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50826"}],"version-history":[{"count":34,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50826\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":50874,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50826\/revisions\/50874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50826"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50826"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50826"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}