{"id":58259,"date":"2015-07-05T09:24:39","date_gmt":"2015-07-05T13:24:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/?p=58259"},"modified":"2015-07-05T11:24:40","modified_gmt":"2015-07-05T15:24:40","slug":"still-happening","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2015\/07\/05\/still-happening\/","title":{"rendered":"still happening&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p align=\"center\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/File:Census-2000-Data-Top-US-Ancestries-by-County.svg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"520\" vspace=\"5\" border=\"0\" height=\"292\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/races.gif\" \/><\/a><br \/>       <sup>[click image for the full version]<\/sup><\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">In the 2000 US Census, they asked people to describe their ancestry. The map showing the dominant answer by County had an interesting spot. Instead of some comment about a foreign lineage, they just wrote &quot;American.&quot; It&#8217;s in yellow and we call it Appalachia for obvious reasons. Outside the cities, it&#8217;s a culturally distinct place, generally poor, and filled with independent people descended from the independent people who gravitated to these mountains from who-knows-where. I live there, and one thing you keep up with in this part of the world is &quot;drugs.&quot; This has been the moonshiner territory since the Civil War, and it remains a center for drug use &#8211; both legit [<a href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2013\/02\/23\/better-than-a-sudoku\/\" target=\"_blank\">better than a sudoku&hellip;<\/a>] and street drugs. If you practice medicine here, you definitely hear about drugs. But that&#8217;s just a little epidemiological side trip. Here&#8217;s the main storyline.<\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\" class=\"small\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"120\" border=\"0\" hspace=\"4\" align=\"right\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/pep-pills.gif\" \/>Some time back, I began to hear a new term &#8211; &quot;New Vigil.&quot; I thought it was a street drug &#8211; slang &#8211; because the people where I live were traveling some 50 miles away during the recession to work in the numerous chicken processing plants there [shift work]. So I thought &quot;New Vigil&quot; was a nickname for some new version pep pill they were taking to stay up all night plucking chickens.<\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">That was sort of right, in spirit, but it was the prescription medication &#8211; <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Armodafinil\">Nuvigil<\/a>&reg; they were seeking. It&#8217;s advertised for excessive daytime sleepiness, but was being used for excessive nightime sleepiness on the graveyard shifts at the chicken plants &#8211; much in demand. The manufacturer, Teva, has cast a wide net looking for other indications [see <a href=\"https:\/\/clinicaltrials.gov\/ct2\/results?term=Armodafinil&#038;state1=NA%3AUS\" target=\"_blank\">clinicaltrials.gov<\/a>]. Here&#8217;s one of their studies in Bipolar Depression:          <\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"big\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pubmed\/25933099\" target=\"_blank\">Adjunctive armodafinil for major depressive episodes associated with bipolar I disorder.<\/a><\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"small\">by Ketter TA, Yang R, and Frye MA.<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"middle\"><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Journal of Affective Disorders<\/font><\/strong>. 2015 181:87-91.<\/div>\n<p>              <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">BACKGROUND<\/font><\/strong><\/u>: In  a previous study, adjunctive armodafinil 150mg\/day significantly  improved depressive symptoms associated with bipolar I disorder.<\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">METHODS<\/font><\/strong><\/u>: Multicenter,  double-blind study of patients with a major depressive episode despite  bipolar I disorder maintenance therapy randomized to adjunctive placebo  or adjunctive armodafinil 150 or 200mg\/day for 8 weeks; for logistical  reasons, assignment to armodafinil 200mg\/day was discontinued early.  Primary efficacy was measured by change from baseline to week 8 in  30-Item Inventory of Depressive Symptomatology-Clinician-Rated (IDS-C30)  total score.<\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><strong><font color=\"#200020\">RESULTS<\/font><\/strong>: Patients  were randomized to adjunctive placebo (n=230), adjunctive armodafinil  150mg\/day (n=232), or adjunctive armodafinil 200mg\/day (n=30; analyzed  for safety only). Least-square mean change in IDS-C30 total score was  numerically superior for adjunctive armodafinil 150mg\/day vs adjunctive  placebo, but was not statistically significant (p=0.13). Armodafinil was  well-tolerated. Adverse events (AEs) observed in &gt;5% with adjunctive  armodafinil 150mg\/day and more frequently than with adjunctive placebo  were headache (16% [38\/231] vs 13% [30\/229]) and nausea (7% [17\/231] vs  2% [5\/229]). The most common AEs with adjunctive armodafinil 200mg\/day  were diarrhea and dry mouth (17% [5\/30] each vs 6% [13\/229] and 1%  [3\/229], respectively, with adjunctive placebo).<\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">LIMITATIONS<\/font><\/strong><\/u>: Early study discontinuation for logistical reasons by the sponsor limited adjunctive armodafinil 200-mg\/day assessment.<\/div>\n<div align=\"justify\"><u><strong><font color=\"#200020\">CONCLUSIONS<\/font><\/strong><\/u>: FDA-approved  bipolar I depression treatments are limited. <em><strong><font color=\"#990000\">Adjunctive armodafinil  150mg\/day reduced depressive symptoms associated with bipolar I disorder  to a greater extent than adjunctive placebo, although the difference  failed to reach statistical significance.<\/font><\/strong><\/em> Safety data indicate treatment  with adjunctive armodafinil was well-tolerated.<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">If you actually read that abstract, you already know it was a very fishy write-up [in fact, it was outrageous]. Neuroskeptic spells it out for us:          <\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"big\"><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/blogs.discovermagazine.com\/neuroskeptic\/2015\/06\/28\/nuvigil-pharma-negative-result\/\">Pharma Make The Most of A Negative Result<\/a><\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"big\"><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Discover Magazine Blogs<\/font><\/strong><\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"middle\">By Neuroskeptic<\/div>\n<div align=\"center\" class=\"small\">June 28, 2015<\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\">A misleading piece of statistical rhetoric has appeared in a paper about an experimental antidepressant treatment. The study is <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pubmed\/25933099\"><strong>published in the <em>Journal of Affective Disorders<\/em><\/strong><\/a>. <em>JAD<\/em> is a respectable mid-ranked psychiatry journal &ndash; yet on this occasion they seem to have dropped the ball badly. The study examined whether the drug armodafinil [Nuvigil] improved mood in people with bipolar disorder who were in a  depressive episode. In a double-blind trial, 462 patients were  randomized to treatment with either armodafinil 150 mg\/day, or placebo,  in addition to their regular medication, for 8 weeks.<\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\">The results showed no statistically significant difference between the two groups in change on the depression rating scale, the IDS-C30. [p = 0.24 LOCF,  p = 0.13 at week 8]. So this means that there was no evidence  that&nbsp;armodafinil helped treat depression. Oh dear. It&rsquo;s a textbook  example of a negative, or null, result. Despite this, however, the paper&rsquo;s abstract concludes on a remarkably upbeat note&#8230;<\/div>\n<ul>\n<div align=\"justify\">FDA-approved  bipolar I depression treatments are limited. Adjunctive  armodafinil  150mg\/day reduced depressive symptoms associated with  bipolar I disorder  to a greater extent than adjunctive placebo,  although the difference  failed to reach statistical significance.          <\/div>\n<\/ul>\n<div align=\"justify\">The second sentence is quite misleading. The mean reduction in symptoms was indeed slightly higher in the  armodafinil group than in the placebo group, but in the absence of  statistical significance, the difference of means is meaningless [no pun  intended]. Even assuming that the drug has no effect, there would be a  50% chance of the drug group having the greater improvement &ndash; and a 50%  chance of the placebo being greater. One of the values has to be  greater, after all. There will always be <em>some<\/em> mean difference. Which is why we need <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Statistical_hypothesis_testing\">statistical significance testing<\/a>.<\/div>\n<p>                <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\"><em><strong><font color=\"#990000\">So we simply can&rsquo;t say that the drug &ldquo;reduced depressive symptoms to a greater extent&rdquo;,  not even if we qualify this with the caveat that the effect was not  statistically significant. The caveat is so big that it negates the  entire statement. <\/font><\/strong><\/em>Other statements about how the drug group showed <em>&ldquo;numerically greater&rdquo;<\/em> improvement appear in the main text&#8230;<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">When I first read this, I laughed it off &#8211; thinking they were responding to the new injunction to publish negative studies because of the ubiquitous &quot;publication bias,&quot; but unable to just say, &quot;negative study.&quot; But somebody pointed out to me that this was not a benign act. Some journal editor let these bizarre conclusions through and that&#8217;s cancer.<\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">There&#8217;s some other weirdness &#8211; like &quot;Received&nbsp; 30 March       2015, Accepted&nbsp; 2 April 2015.&quot;&nbsp; When did they even do peer review? And there&#8217;s something else worthy of note. There are four studies of in Bipolar Depression, and three of them share something peculiar:<\/p>\n<table cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"0\" border=\"0\" align=\"center\">\n<tr align=\"center\" class=\"middle\">\n<td colspan=\"3\"><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Clinical Trials of Nuvigil&reg;<\/font><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"small\">\n<td width=\"25%\" valign=\"top\" align=\"center\"><strong><font color=\"#200020\">subjects<\/font><\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\" valign=\"top\" align=\"center\"><strong><font color=\"#200020\">sites<\/font><\/strong><\/td>\n<td width=\"25%\" valign=\"top\" align=\"center\"><strong><font color=\"#200020\">mean<br \/>subjects\/site<\/font><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr align=\"center\">\n<td colspan=\"3\">\n<hr size=\"1\" \/><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"small\">\n<td align=\"center\">499<\/td>\n<td align=\"center\">92<\/td>\n<td align=\"center\"><strong><font color=\"#200020\">5.4<\/font><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"small\">\n<td align=\"center\">257<\/td>\n<td align=\"center\">55<\/td>\n<td align=\"center\"><strong><font color=\"#200020\">4.6<\/font><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"small\">\n<td align=\"center\">399<\/td>\n<td align=\"center\">130<\/td>\n<td align=\"center\"><strong><font color=\"#200020\">3.0<\/font><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr class=\"small\">\n<td align=\"center\">897<\/td>\n<td align=\"center\">33<\/td>\n<td align=\"center\">27.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n<p align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">The CROs spread their studies over multiple sites to make recruitment easier and and speed up the trial. But I&#8217;ve never seen anything that approximated this number of sites. There&#8217;s a statistical method to partition variance to separate out the effect of the <em>sites<\/em> from the effect of the <em>drug<\/em>, and testing the <em>drug x site<\/em> interaction checks for particular sites skewing the results [though I couldn&#8217;t see that they availed themselves of that test]. But even if they had, this pushes the practice of using multiple sites well beyond any credibility.<\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">It&#8217;s tedious, but I&#8217;m thinking that the vigilance about industry-funded trials is not yet over. It&#8217;s still happening&#8230;<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>[click image for the full version] In the 2000 US Census, they asked people to describe their ancestry. The map showing the dominant answer by County had an interesting spot. Instead of some comment about a foreign lineage, they just wrote &quot;American.&quot; It&#8217;s in yellow and we call it Appalachia for obvious reasons. Outside the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-58259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opinion"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58259","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=58259"}],"version-history":[{"count":31,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58259\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":58290,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/58259\/revisions\/58290"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=58259"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=58259"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=58259"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}