{"id":63818,"date":"2016-03-03T22:07:32","date_gmt":"2016-03-04T03:07:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/?p=63818"},"modified":"2016-03-04T08:06:44","modified_gmt":"2016-03-04T13:06:44","slug":"the-empty-pipeline","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2016\/03\/03\/the-empty-pipeline\/","title":{"rendered":"the empty pipeline&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p align=\"center\"><img decoding=\"async\" border=\"0\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/pipeline-y.gif\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">Last night, I spent some time writing a letter to the FDA. It was about <font color=\"#200020\">Vortioxetine <\/font>[<font color=\"#200020\">Brintellix&reg;<\/font>] and their application for an approval for <font color=\"#200020\">Cognitive Dysfunction in Major Depressive Disorder<\/font> [see&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/27\/indications\/\">indications&hellip;<\/a> and <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/29\/more-vortioxetine-story\/\">more vortioxetine story&hellip;<\/a>]. This morning I got a confirmation that it had been passed along to &quot;the Division&quot; [which I suppose is better than the alternative]. My letter was a less &quot;bloggy&quot; version of <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/27\/indications\/\">indications&hellip;<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/29\/more-vortioxetine-story\/\">more vortioxetine story&hellip;<\/a>. While I&#8217;m hardly holding my breath, it felt kind of good to actually send a letter to the place that ought to hear it rather than just post it to the universe at large on a blog at the edge of the galaxy. <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">I see this as something of a dangerous time. We&#8217;re at the end of a <em><font color=\"#200020\">pipeline<\/font><font color=\"#200020\"> period<\/font><\/em> in psychopharmacology &#8211; one that lasted for a really long time considering that there were only a couple of classes of drugs involved. But then the <em><font color=\"#200020\">pipeline<\/font><\/em> dried up. The approval of <font color=\"#200020\">Brexpiprazole&reg;<\/font> as an Adjunct to Antidepressants in Treatment Resistant Depression is an example of why it&#8217;s a dangerous time. They presented two trials with the amazing pixie dust of changing the outcome definitions in the middle of the trial to bring the second study into statistical significance. The FDA reviewer didn&#8217;t buy it&#8230;<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div><strong><font color=\"#200020\">7.4. <\/font><\/strong><a href=\"http:\/\/www.accessdata.fda.gov\/drugsatfda_docs\/nda\/2015\/205422Orig1Orig2s000MedR.pdf#page=100\" target=\"_blank\">Adjunctive Treatment of MDD<\/a><\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\"><strong><font color=\"#200020\">7.4.1.<\/font><\/strong>  The Sponsor conducted two adequate and well &ndash; controlled trials to assess the efficacy of brexpiprazole for the adjunctive treatment of MDD.  Based on the prespecified statistical analysis plan, only one of these  trials [Study 331-10-228] was positive. The Sponsor acknowledges that  Study 331-10-227 was not positive based on the pre-specified plan, but  provides a number of arguments to support the concept that brexpiprazole  should nonetheless be approved for this indication.<\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\">Approval of the adjunctive MDD indication would have  to rest on one of two possible scenarios: 1. Study 331-10-227 can be  considered a positive trial based on the retrospective application of  Amendment 3 criteria and use of the per protocol population instead of  the intent &ndash; to &ndash; treat population for the primary analysis. 2. Study  331-10-228 can be considered &ldquo;strongly positive&rdquo; and, thus, approval can  be based on this single study. Study 331-10-227 would then be viewed as  &ldquo;supportive evidence&rdquo; for this approval.<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">but then ended with&#8230;<\/div>\n<blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\">One can also reasonably consider Study 331-10-228 a  &ldquo;strongly positive&rdquo; study &mdash; in a population of individuals with a  history of multiple failed antidepressant trials and prospectively  demonstrated suboptimal response to an additional antidepressant, the  addition of 2 mg\/day of brexpiprazole yielded an average additional  symptom improvement of just over 8 points on the MADRS. This was 3  points beyond the improvement in placebo &mdash; a difference that was highly  statistically significant at p=0.0001. These results are both clinically  and statistically meaningful. <\/div>\n<p>    <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\">Thus, with one strongly positive trial and  supportive evidence from two additional trials, there is adequate  evidence of efficacy to approve this product for the adjunctive  treatment of MDD.<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">That&#8217;s a peculiar conclusion. The FDA standards are low, actually shamefully low. Two positive trials out of as-many-as-you-want-to-do. And positive means <em><font color=\"#200020\">statistically significant<\/font><\/em> rather than <em><font color=\"#200020\">clinically significant<\/font><\/em>. For example, this drug for this indication flunked <em><font color=\"#200020\">clinically significant<\/font><\/em> by any objective measure I know &#8211; Subject Rated Scales and Effect Sizes. But I&#8217;ve said that so much I might get thrown off the Internet for terminal monotony. My point this time is that the reviewer&#8217;s logic is upside down. Given what we know about Clinical Trials, a better interpretation would be that <strong><em><font color=\"#200020\">the second study did not replicate the first<\/font><\/em><\/strong>. <em><strong><font color=\"#200020\">Replication<\/font><\/strong><\/em> is something of a gold standard, and it should be. That&#8217;s what we do in practice, count on the fact that the results of a clinical trial will be <strong><em><font color=\"#200020\">replicated<\/font><\/em><\/strong> in our patients. So I&#8217;m concerned that in the face of the empty pipeline, the FDA will do things like this, stretch their already too-low standards even lower &#8211; something they did in this case.<\/div>\n<p align=\"justify\" class=\"small\"><img decoding=\"async\" vspace=\"5\" border=\"0\" hspace=\"4\" height=\"189\" align=\"right\" src=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/images\/vortio-6.gif\" \/>The story with this <font color=\"#200020\">Brintellix&reg;<\/font> application for approval is the same issue &#8211; <em><strong><font color=\"#200020\">a failed replication<\/font><\/strong><\/em>. Their second study [CONNECT] did not reproduce the results of the earlier trial [FOCUS]. While there are lots of other questions about approval for this indication, they&#8217;re in the background to this <em><strong><font color=\"#200020\">non-replication<\/font><\/strong><\/em>. So it&#8217;s a dangerous time because here&#8217;s another situation where they&#8217;re about to give a drug the benefit of the doubt if they follow the recommendations of the advisory committee [see <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/2016\/02\/29\/more-vortioxetine-story\/\">more vortioxetine story&hellip;<\/a>]. There&#8217;s no reason to do that. <font color=\"#200020\">Brintellix&reg;<\/font> has never beaten another antidepressant head-to-head &#8211; and this indication [<font color=\"#200020\">Cognitive Dysfunction in Major Depressive Disorder<\/font>] seems both contrived and unproven. <\/p>\n<div align=\"justify\" class=\"small\">The only result from this approval will be to allow Takeda\/Lundbeck to create misleading advertisements. It&#8217;s not going to help any of our patients in any substantive way&#8230; <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last night, I spent some time writing a letter to the FDA. It was about Vortioxetine [Brintellix&reg;] and their application for an approval for Cognitive Dysfunction in Major Depressive Disorder [see&nbsp;indications&hellip; and more vortioxetine story&hellip;]. This morning I got a confirmation that it had been passed along to &quot;the Division&quot; [which I suppose is better [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63818","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-opinion"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63818","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63818"}],"version-history":[{"count":21,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63818\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":63850,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63818\/revisions\/63850"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63818"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63818"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1boringoldman.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63818"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}