reformated to make the scales [R to L] comparable
He shows another graph of pregnancies by age for White, Hispanic, and Black women that makes it clear that teenage pregnancy remains quite high, particularly in the minority populations.
My own thoughts about abortion are pragmatic. First, there are no consistent human predators, so our growth has marched forward unchecked. There comes a point where "enough is enough." I frankly think we’re already on the wrong side in human population, so I see abortion by choice as a factor in limiting our over-growth. Second, I attended too many teenage deaths from illegal abortions. It’s not pretty, and it’s not right. Finally, the most reliable predictor of mental health is being a "wanted" child. I’m sure that’s right.
But I’m curious if voluntary abortion by women who do not want to carry the pregnancy is even close to enough to stem population growth. I kind of doubt it. So, whenever real numbers come my way, I find myself poring over them to see if that question can be answered. And Paul includes a table with a column I’ve never seen before – % at conception who wanted to be pregnant:
from which he extrapolates the "wanted total fertility rates." In all cases, the percentage of "wanted pregnancies" fell between 1996 and 2003 [White -4.0%, Black -7.1%, Hispanic -6.4%]. In 2003, the percentages of "unwanted pregnancies" was White 10.7%, Black 26.2%, Hispanic 16.8%. Interestingly, the abortion statistics are higher that the "unwanted pregnancies" in all three groups [White 12.5%, Black 37.4%, Hispanic 19.1%].This difference is likely more reflective of the different sources for the numbers than some real statistic. Whatever the case, I felt encouraged by the fact that the women who don’t want to be pregnant seem to be using abortion as a method of waiting until they choose to have children. The graph shows the expected low abortion rates for the predominantly Catholic Hispanic women.
I got to wondering two things: What was this high birth rate among Hispanics going to do to the racial make-up of the country? And if voluntary abortion was making enough of a dent in the population growth. After trying for a while to use these birth rates and the general population statistics to make that kind of projection, I called on a higher power – the Census Bureau – obviously better equipped. Here are their population projections. The graph on the left is in thousands. The graph on the right is in percentages.
We’re still breeding like rabbits. The population has doubled in my lifetime. Nothing on that graph suggests that the population growth is slowing. At the best, at least our growth looks closer to linear than geometric or logarithmic. And they project the obvious, that the Hispanic growth is real. While that’s all very interesting, it’s the first fact that is the cause for alarm. Without legal abortion, our growth rates would be skyrocketing. They’re already too high. Even with legalized abortion, our time is numbered. At some future time, that graph on the left will have to level out. When I look at these numbers, I wonder what the anti-abortion, anti-birth-control people are actually thinking. Are they crowding the world for Armageddon? [surely God gave us minds to use to figure out such simple things as population control].
What’s the hurry? Because it takes a long time to curb population growth. The experiment is already underway on the other side of the globe. This is the birth rate and total population of China since their Revolution in 1949.
After Mao had them breeding like sheep, they saw the writing on the wall and decided to limit childbirth to one child per couple in 1979 – a fairly radical intervention. As you can see, the total population curve is just beginning to "rise less fast" after 24 years [compare with the left US graph immediately above]. The graphs below are their government’s projections through 2050:
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